April 30 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

This is my 60th day of tracking the daily COVID-19 stats in Westchester County. Much of the day-to-day changes now are just noise.  The data with the least day-to-day noise is the Percent Testing Positive.  This number continues almost a linear drop from its peak 5 weeks ago. 

The Daily Deaths in Westchester increased from yesterday (orange line), but was not statistically different.

The number of New Cases in Bergamo, Italy has been between 35 and 110 since April 6.  This is a very long tail (yellow line).  It is what we should expect in Westchester where the epidemic has been similar.  The virus is very contagious, so it is expected to spread at a finite rate in spite of physical distancing.  As testing becomes more widely available, it is expected that a greater portion of positive cases are mild and do not require hospitalization.  This is true for Westchester as well as Bergamo.

Therapeutics

Preliminary results for the antiviral, remdesivir, show similar efficacy in treating COVID-19 as TAMIFLU does in treating the regular flu.  It reduces the duration of the disease by about 30% and reduces mortality. It is not a cure, but will reduce hospital stays and save lives.

Pfizer and BioNTech started clinical trials of an mRNA vaccine last week in Germany.  The US trial is to start next week. If any company is capable of bringing a complicated vaccine to the mass market, it is Pfizer.  It is one part of their manufacturing they have not moved to China.