New Cases in Westchester have declined for 4 days-in-row. This is the first time that has happened.
Reduction in New Cases is a leading indicator of reductions in deaths. Because death reporting in at the county level has been sporatic and delayed, the death reports shown below are not very informative. The death rate for the state of NY appears to be at its apex.
The New Case Count for Nassau and NYC showed increases vs the prior day, but hopefully this is just the normal noise in the data.
What is the real level of infection (and hopefully antibody presence) in the population?
The answer to this question will vary by region and can only truly be seen with widespread antibody testing.
Chester County, PA is starting antibody testing. They have received 20,000 finger-prick kits from Advaite. Chester has 304 confirmed cases.
Harder hit areas are expected to have larger percentages of the population with antibodies. I have been comparing Westchester (over 1% known infections) with the Province of Bergamo in Lombardy. Lombardy is the hardest hit region in Italy. 40 of 60 voluntary blood donators in Castiglione d'Adda, Lodi Province, Lombardy, Italy tested positive for the virus. All were asymptomatic. This suggests a very high level of antibodies in some areas.
We know from the demographics of deaths that school age children are minimally affected. But they are definitely carriers as the modelers at IMHE found that "Our statistical tests suggest that early actions such as school closures may have a larger effect in some communities than expected." School-age children are another big chunk of the asymptomatic population with antibodies.
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