April 8 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

Here are the updated charts with data through April 7, 2020. Click on a chart to enlarge it.

New cases in Westchester County, NY have declined for the 5th straight day. Despite having one of the highest per capita infection rates in the country (about 1.5% confirmed infected vs NYC at less than 1%) only about 10% are being hospitalized.  The county hospitals have been able to handle that load which is currently about 10,000 patients.

Ideally we should track New Infections. New Infections lead to New Symptoms (2-14d) -> New Tests (1-14d) -> New Cases (0-4d) -> New Hospitalizations -> New Deaths. Unfortunately, the most accurate statistic is the New Deaths, which is a very late indicator of the status of the virus in the population.  The earliest indicator we can measure is New Cases (that is why I show that statistic most frequently). But the time between the the actual virus transmission and obtaining the test result (which is the definition of New Case) is 3 to 32 days. The New Case Count peaked on about March 30, or about 14 days after the stay-at-home order. If the New Cases follow the gaussian curve, we should hit less than 10 per day by April 17. But if the curve is really as broad as the Bergamo curve, it could be May 1 before we reach that level.

The peak in NY State deaths is predicted for 2 days from today. I cannot compare that with Westchester deaths as the public reporting is delayed. Because Westchester is a few days further down the curve than NYC and a few more days in front of the rest of the state, deaths have probably already peaked in Westchester.

The kinsa health map says that the entire nation has an unusually low level of influenza-like illness...about 1%.  That is what social distancing does. What if we find out that we saved 10,000 influenza deaths this year in addition to slowing the corona virus? Will we finally admit that living has its risks? Will we choose to live? Or will we recede into our caves until anarchy brings us to our senses?

Even in Westchester we are sliding into a range of less influenza-like illness than expected.

Trader Joe's

I am lucky that I have not been inconvenienced much by the stay-at-home orders.  I am largely a recluse, training in my home gym, cooking my GF meals, reading. But I had complained publicly about not being able to shop at my favorite grocery store, Trader Joe's, for over a month due to the crowds. TJ stores have small footprints and sell three-times as much grocery per square foot than the typical Kroger or Publix. There is no backroom or off-hours shelf stocking.  The workers are always on the floor and visible.

Sadly, a clerk at my TJ's just died from COVID-19. The store is closed until Thursday.  I am sure I knew this person. I extend my deepest thanks to all food-supply workers who have sustained us through this ordeal.