April 24 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

One puzzling aspect of the epidemic in Westchester is the improvement in total hospitalizations despite only minor reductions in the New Case rate.  Since the peak of the epidemic in Westchester the number of patients hospitalized has dropped from over 1100 to less than 900 as of yesterday. The New Case Rate, which should be the leading indicator of all other metrics, remains stubbornly at about 700 per day after almost five weeks.  See blue line below.

Westchester is also stuck at about 30 deaths per day (see orange line below).  Perhaps the 'steady reduction' in total hospitalizations is only noise in another plateau?

This elongated epidemic is, after all, what we were trying to do with all of the social distancing measures.  The idea was to 'slow' the spread, not to stop the spread.  So we should not be surprised that the epidemic curve has a lower peak but is very broad. The length of the Westchester epidemic (blue line) could be 60 days.

This is different from what was reported in China.  The entire country only had a 30 day event???

Daily New Cases in China.  John Hopkins

But the elongated epidemic is exactly what is being reported out of Italy.

Daily New Cases in Italy.   worldometers

The true infection rate in Westchester is now thought to be about 12% based on recent 'random' antibody testing.  The sample size is still small, but it confirms that there are many people who are asymptomatic or where the symptoms were so mild that they did not qualify for a swab test. I am a bit surprised it was not higher based on the spread of the disease after social distancing.

Yesterday, I heard that a neighbor couple (both in the medical profession and living only two doors away) had tested positive several weeks ago and had quarantined with their two young kids. I do not know if they had symptoms, but during this period I saw him several times working in his yard.  My guess is that they were some of the few asymptomatic persons who got tested because they were exposed to patients. Other than that couple, I know of noone in Westchester testing positive, but it appears one in eight Westchesterians have been infected!

The facts

The White House Task Force Briefing featured the Head of DHS's Science and Technology Group.. Now there is a sleeper cell.  Apparently they do all kinds of R&D to protect the USA from all kinds of threats including bioterrorism. They have a lab that specializes in viral threats and can measure the half-life of the CoronaVirus at various temperatures, humidities, and UV conditions.

They have not published their methods, but the verbal description was compelling enough to make me think they know what they are doing.  If you get off on drilling down to the real scientific questions (what is known and what needs to be known), read their Master Question.