Yesterday, New York reported the first negative change in ICU beds. More beds were being emptied than were being filled with new patients.
This conflicts with the increase in New Cases seen in most jurisditions. I have found no explanation for this in any of the state or city press releases. Because noone has raised a flag, I assume this is just a backlog of test results coming in. In fact, the city has started counting New Cases by the Day on which the swab was taken. Their new curve is seen below along with my chart which is plotted by the Day of Test Result.
For a change, I have plotted the Westchester data on a log scale. The epidemiologists like this because it is easier to see the bending of the curve.
There is not much change in the comparison plot with Westchester's "sister county," Bergamo, Italy.
Opinion
My trust in Dr. Fauci sank again yesterday during a discussion about relaxing stay-at-home orders for low-risk persons. Apparently a governor had stated that noone under 25 had died. Dr. Fauci stood up and stated that that was incorrect. There have been deaths of persons under 25.
While it is true that persons under 25 have died, if he is really a person driven by data, he would admit it is a very small number. Here are the numbers from New York which are a majority of the deaths in the USA.
Deaths of persons under 20 is 0.1%!! Under 30-years-of-age is 0.6%!! I think that rounds to zero!!
And then he states that the "social distancing is working." And while I agree, why has he been lecturing me about "correlation is not causation" for the past two weeks? Where is his randomized controlled study to prove the cause of reduced infections really is the social distancing measures? Ohhhhh, because those are HIS experiments!!??!! Beware of those who make rules for thee but not for me!
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