April 25 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

The epidemic in Westchester County, New York is in a very slow decline. It is so slow, that it is getting boring to track on a daily basis.  New Cases are plotted below.  Beneath it is the same data with daily-noise filtered out (essentially 7 day averages).

With the noise filtered out it appears that Westchester reached its peak first.  This aligns with suspicions that the metro epidemic started in Westchester.  Westchester had the first containment zone in the metro area.  Nassau peaked later but appears to have a faster decline than Westchester or NYC.

The percent testing positve also continues to show a slow improvement.  The US Average is about 10% testing positive.

Deaths per day in Westchester are essentially unchanged (orange line).

I have expanded my time horizon to May 3.  Originally, all models predicted that the New York epidemic would be over by May 1.  They all assumed a Gaussian shape (a bell curve).  It now appears (especially for Westchester if you look at 7-day averages) to be more like an exponential rise followed by a linear decay.