Thursday, April 2, 2020

April 2 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

Here are the updated charts with data through April 1, 2020. Click on a chart to enlarge it.

The gaussian-fit of Daily New Case Count for Westchester County was updated with the April 1 data point. The fit parameters were not affected greatly by the latest report.



The Total Cases in Westchester per-capita place it near the top of all regions in the world.  The infection rate based on confirmed testing is now over 1% of the population.  It has twice the cases per-capita vs. NYC. Why is this? One explanation is the virus was spreading in Westchester for days longer than in NYC before the mitigation measures were put in place. Yet, the hospitals in Westchester seem to be doing better than in NYC?  Why is that?



The comparison of New Cases between Westchester, NYC, and Nassau County are now plotted on a per-capita basis.



The IHME daily forecast for NYS has not changed much since yesterday.  It is still predicting a Daily Death Count peak on April 10.  Governor Cuomo stated yesterday that the IHME model predicted "high death rates through July." This is clearly not true from this graph.




This table below contains demographics of NYC deaths.  Out of 1139 deaths in NYC only 14 did not have contributing underlying conditions.



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