April 21 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

The duration of the Westchester County epidemic is now appearing to be much longer in duration than expected. The duration of the China epidemic was about 30 days, January 23 to February 23 (95% of new cases appeared in this time span, if you believe that. The Wuhan epidemic would be even shorter.)  The duration of the epidemic in Bergamo, Italy appears to be about 45 days. The Westchester epidemic appears to be at least 45 days.

I am not the only one to notice this.  See this Bloomberg article on the flattened but ELONGATED curve.

IMHE has not updated their models since April 17.  Supposedly new ones are coming out today.  They also have increased their estimates of epidemic durations.  Once again, the China curve-shape is not playing out here.  Shown below is IMHE's prediction of the NYS death curve from April 17.  Right below it is the curve from April 1, which predicted the end of the epidemic on about May 1.

New cases in the NYC metro area dropped below their plateau averages, but declaring a trend would be a stretch. NYC and Nassau reported the fewest new cases since March, but Westchester is still struggling to get below 500 new cases per day.

Deaths in Westchester are still on a plateau of 30 per day.