The curve of new cases in Westchester County is flattening, but signs of a true drop are not yet visible. The percent positive test results is still about 50% which indicates a rationing of tests. In other words, new cases are being undercounted. In comparison, the national average is about 15%. New York City and Nassau County are still struggling with test results coming back almost 60% positive.
The FDA approved the first serology test for COVID-19 antibodies. Cellex Antibody Test It is a lab test (not a point -of-care test) and detects both IgM and IgG antibodies. This particular test is relatively easy to scale to the millions of kits, but it requires blood draws and lab technicians. The testing of millions of subjects will take awhile. However, it should just take a few days to test a representative sample of New Yorkers. For example, if 50% of a sample of 1000 people in New York City had the antibody, it would explain the trajectory of infection in the city....the infection was too widespread prior to social distancing to stop it. If only 2% have the antibody, it would mean that either the virus has a much longer incubation period than thought, or it is extremely contagious and defied the social distancing.
There are other antibody tests (as mentioned in prior blogs) that can be done in the doctor's office. They are 'finger-prick' tests where a drop of blood is placed in the well of a plate. The presence of antibodies activates a color as in the test above. These can also be made easily by the millions and have the advantage being done in real time. Apparently they are not as robust, and only have an FDA waiver. SD Biosensor and RayBiotech have said they are already shipping these items.
Nassau County (on Long Island, east of Queens) continues its very high rate of infection.
No change in the IHME forecast for the peak in NYC.
Death Demographics in NYC
Unfortunately the state has not published demographics of the deaths in Westchester County. New York City, on the other hand, publishes a daily update. Here are a few conclusions from their data:
1. Men are 50% more likely to die than women.
2. Only one person under 18-years-old has died out of 1867 total deaths.
3. Only 6% of the deaths are of people under 45.
4. 70% of the deaths had underlying conditions.
This report does not elaborate on the underlying conditions, but other sources list diabetes, pre-diabetes, and obesity as the major conditions. In fact, the higher death rate in Louisiana may be due to the higher prevalence of these health conditions in that state.
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