April 10 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

Here are the updated charts with data through April 9, 2020. Click on a chart to enlarge it.

There is still an anomaly in the reporting of New Cases for Westchester, Nassau, and NYC (catching up with a backlog of tests?).  That data conflicts with the New Hospitalization data that is clearly going down. The hospitalization data for NYC is shown below.  The data for the state is similar. There are about 1000 hospitalized in Westchester which is 6% of the cases or 0.1% of the population.

The deaths reported in Westchester increased to 359 which is 2.1% of the confirmed cases or about 3.5 per 10,000 residents.

The recent anomalous high number of tests and resulting number of positives is making the epidemic curve stretch out.  It is starting to look more like Bergamo, Italy (a similary-sized province that was hit early and hard as was Westchester) in duration.

Nassau and NYC have also seen the recent anomalous influx of test results.

The IMHE model for deaths in NYS has not been updated since yesterday, so it is not shown.

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Therapies

The White House task force said there are 19? therapies in active clinical trials and another 29 in the planning stages. My old employer, Pfizer, just dug an old protease inhibitor out of their historical anti-viral portfolio and found it has in-vitro activity against SARS-CoV-2.  Hmmm.   Dr. Raoult will be releasing his observational study of over 1000 patients in France using the hydroxycholroquine-azithromycin combo.  The summary table has already been released.

Travel

My brother sent me this graphic of daily air travel decline.

The decline in travel by train is similar. About 30% of  Westchester households use commuter trains to work in NYC. That ridership is now at 2% of normal.

Personal

I still know noone in Westchester who has been tested (positive or negative). That is hard to believe as over 5% of the county has been tested. I may recognize the face of the Trader Joe's worker who died, but I did not really know that person.

I volunteer at a historical society on the other side of the Hudson River in Orange County. The virus is just starting to sweep that county.  Last night, the president of the society, who I know well, told me her 74-year-old brother and his 50-year-old son died of the corona virus in Warwick, Orange County. I had met her brother several times. Very sad times.