There is quite a bit of positive news from yesterday:
1. Daily Death Count for NYS dropped for the first time since the beginning of the outbreak.
2. The daily increase in hospitalizations in NYS dropped by half. (This matches with my conclusion on April 3, that "new cases [are] not dropping because people with minor symptoms are now able to get the tests? If so, are new cases less likely to be hospitalized?")
3. New Cases for NYC, Westchester, and Nassau all saw drops with testing levels staying the same. (see chart below). In other words, the percent testing positive declined in all of the NYC metro areas.
4. The updated IHME model now predicts the peak deaths in NYS one day earlier, April 9th (see chart below). Westchester, NYC, and Nassau should peak prior to that, and in that order
IMHE Model for New York State updated on April 5, 2020
Bergamo Italy continues to see a reduction in new cases. This was an early and hard-hit area outside of Milan with population very similar to Westchester, so I have been using it as a comparator.
Death reporting at the county level in NYS is not believed to be reliable. (Green line at bottom of graph.) The 1.5% death rate is similar to the state average.
- A NYC family doctor said she is only given 10% of the daily test-kits she needs for patients with symptoms. This confirms my guess that infections are being undercounted and lag the actual infection date.
- Google has released their "mobility" data. Westchester's reductions in public transportation use, working, playing...is evident.
- In the first three months of 2020, about 500,000 people died in the US. CDC Statistics. About 2500 from COVID-19 or less than 1% of total deaths. If the total reaches 100,000 that will be 5% of US deaths for 2020.
- CDC has begun issuing a weekly Surveillance Report
- CDC says the surveillance study of the general population for antibodies has already begun. This study looks at blood samples from people never diagnosed in some of the nation’s Covid-19 hot spots.
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