I have been comparing Westchester to Bergamo, Italy (as well as NYC and Nassau County). I will continue to try and do that, but I do not currently have access to the Bergamo metrics that I think are important.
What are the important metrics in 'reopening'? Here is my list.
1. The hospitals should not be overutilized. This should not be a difficult metric to hit as most of the hospitals in the US were nowhere near capacity during the worst of the epidemic. Bergamo was overrun as were some hospitals in NYC.
2. Protect the most vulnerable. From the very start it was obvious that those over 65 and those with underlying conditions were at highest risk (although most states ignored this in their executive orders). Is there anything we can give them prophylactically? Where are the studies on prophylactic hydroxychloroquine? As most of the deaths are in this group, the metric can be deaths per day. Keep it less than 3 in 10,000 on an annual basis (0.03%) . This is about the death rate for regular flu.
3. Economic health metric. This could be measured in unemployment rates. GDP has too great of a lag to be a metric.
As I have repeated almost daily, this pandemic does not follow a Bell Curve. It has a very long tail. See Bergamo below. Does this mean the virus continues to spread, despite social distancing? Or does it mean that actions on Day 0 have implications over several months? The latter would make if very difficult to make adjustments to a faulty reopening plan.
Almost six weeks after their peak, Bergamo will be entering Phase II on Monday, May 4. For the first time since their stay-at-home order on March 9 they will be able to see relatives if they maintain 6 feet and wear masks. They can run and bike outside and go to the park, maintaining 6 feet and wearing masks. Gyms, cinemas, restaurants, hair salons, museums, churches, and playgrounds are still closed. Travel to second homes or to other regions of Italy is still not permitted. Public or private gatherings are not permitted with the exception of funeral parties of 15 or less, preferably outdoors with masks and 6 foot distancing. People with fever or respitatory illness must quarantine regardless of diagnosis. Businesses will start reopening in a staggered fashion. Schools are closed until September.
Both the New Case curves and the Death Curve shown below are not following the classical Bell Curve of an epidemic.
Bike Sunday on May 3 in Westchester appears to be a go (with masks). Bike Sunday is a 6.5 mile shutdown of the Bronx River Parkway for four hours on Sundays in May, June, and September. I guess I should be grateful that our Phase I in Westchester does not appear to be as restrictive as Phase II in Italy.
A recent 'random' antibody test estimated that 15% of Westchester had been exposed to the virus. The actual confirmed prevalence in Westchester is about 3%. About 10% of Westchester has been tested for the virus. On a personal note, my antibody test was negative. I suffered for eight weeks from late February to early April with a sinus virus. I am convinced I got it from the pool at my local gym. My point is that there are all kinds of viruses out there, most have not been identified, named, and given media coverage. If only 20% of the people tested for COVID have it, what are the other 80% suffering from? Who knows when an infection is going to be life threatening? Should I avoid my gym? What risks will I be willing to accept in the future?
How difficult was it to get an antibody test? Here is Wyoming, you have to be practically dying to get tested for the virus. I'm surprised you tested negative....thought the gym would have been the place to pick it up.
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