The new cases in Westchester remain stubbornly high. Governor Cuomo used the word "disturbing." The cases per capita are at an unexpected level. More than 1% of the population of Westchester is confirmed positive. If you add the asymptomatic and those not tested due to minor symptoms and scarcity of the test, it is probably more like 10%. Are our expectations of the infection rate incorrect because of bad reporting by China? Do we really believe China contained the virus to the Hubei (Wuhan) area? That would be like the US containing the virus in St. Louis.
Cases per 1MM residents (Total Cases)
Westchester ------------ 11,567 (11,567)
New York City ---------- 5,955 (51,809)
New York State ---------- 4,159 (83,172)
New Jersey -------------- 2,473 (22,255)
California --------------- 239 (9,568)
Michigan ----------------- 933 (9,334)
Hubei Province ---------- 1,159 (67,802)
China ----------------------- 59 (82,465)
Perhaps Westchester is testing more than other areas? (Yes, in Westchester we are testing at about 10x the level in South Korea that was "the best-in-class" model). The number of new cases correlates with the number of new tests (the more you test, the more you will find) so it appears that the demand for tests still outstrips the supply.
Is the reporting of new cases skewed due to the delay from swab to test report? Is it still several days from swab to public release of the data?
Are new cases not dropping because people with minor symptoms are now able to get the tests? If so, are new cases less likely to be hospitalized?
Is this data saying that social distancing is not working as well as it did in Wuhan? If the median incubation period is only 1.5 days (latest from CDC) and the duration from symptoms to test results is about a week, we should have seen a rapid drop off in new cases by March 25.
The gaussian fit of the data is getting worse as the "New Case" data now appears to be bimodal?
Westchester County officials announced they will not be releasing data for the municipalities any longer. That means no more data on Yonkers. The data was misleading because of a several-day-lag in reporting. Was that the reason for discontinuing? A better solution would have been to eliminate the time delay in reporting. The death data for Westchester is reported sporatically and also appears to have a reporting delay.
The UW Model is still predicting a peak in death count on about April 10 for the state of New York....7 days away. Governor Cuomo is using a model that predicts 1-2 weeks after that.
Hospital researchers in Wuhan published a randomized study using hydroxychloroquine vs. standard-of-care. The hydroxychloroquine group had a larger reduction in fever, cough, and pneumonia vs. the control group. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v2.full.pdf
Of more interest is their meta analysis of 80 patients taking hydroxychloroquine for lupus who were admitted to the hospital for reasons other than COVID in the same timeframe. None were positive for COVID-19. Contrarily, none of the COVID patients at this hospital had a prior history of hydroxychloroquine use. The evidence for prophylactic use of hydroxychloroquine is mounting. It may end the pandemic before a vaccine is ready. Unfortunately, several states have banned off-label use of this drug. Perhaps that is to preserve supply for healthcare workers, but the cynic in me tells me it is because they think they are smarter than the public.
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