Today's death count for New York State is predicted to be the maximum. (Technically, this is the count that will be reported tomorrow, so it would not appear in my blog until 2 days from now). I believe the death count max for Westchester should have been a few days ago. Source IHME.
There was an anomaly in the New Cases reported yesterday. No flags were raised in the NYS Briefing, so it appears to be the nature of the reporting and not a true indication that cases have jumped. My guess is that a laboratory released all of its test results for the last several days in one big dump. The number of tests in all entities almost doubled, so naturally so did the 'positives.'
The Kinsa ILI map continues to show very low incidence of illness in Westchester.. In fact, all of the above the data seem to suggest that the spread of corona virus has been under control for some weeks.
Getting back to normal
You will hear many opinions in the next few weeks about how and when to reopen the economy (if you haven't already). It would be nice to have more data, but the patient (the economy) can't wait. This blog is usually about the facts, but here is my take on what we can do once the hospitalization utilization drops to normal in a particular region. This can all be adjusted as we get more data about the degree of immunity in various populations.
1. People who carry the antibodies should return to normal life.
2. If you are under 45 with no underlying conditions, you may go back to work now. If you get flu symptoms, go home! Your risks of getting hospitalized froom COVID are small. Even if you get the virus, the hospitals will not be stressed. Continue to maintain social distancing and work from home if possible. Beware that you or other family members could be bringing the virus into your home, so maintain good hygiene and social distancing in the home until you can all get antibody testing.
3. If you are 65+, continue to stay-at-home. You are the highest risk group and now that others are out and about, you need to take care of yourself. Do not gather with family or other groups. For this country to step towards normalcy, you must sacrifice a bit longer or the whole thing will blow up. You must be even MORE careful now than in the last period!
4. School-age kids should return to normal activities. Learn! After all we need a smarter group than our current leaders of science, government, and media who had less than a stellar performance on this one. You will get sick and not even know it, but soon you and your playmates will develop herd immunity. Unfortunately, because you will be carriers, you must stay away from the elderly. In fact, you are sort of like a banished group for a while. Stay out of stores, restaurants, or any place with groups of adults.
5. If you are 45-64, get an antibody test. After health-care workers and first responders, this should be the group targeted for the antibody test. If you test positive, you have immunity. Return to work as #1. If you are negative and have no underlying conditions, you are at low risk and can resume work (as #2) where minimal close interpersonal contact is possible. If you are negative and have underlying conditions, behave as #3 above.
6. All of these measures can be done when hospitalization utilization returns to normal, but it is also possible to phase in #1 then #2... Remember, it takes two or three weeks from infection to hospital admission, so the effect of implementing any of these will not be apparent for several weeks, maybe a month. We still don't understand exactly how the disease is transmitted, so we should still maintain the social distance measures and face masks. Assume every school-age kid is a carrier. To live with this we should not allow them in stores and restaurants where they could infect others. But let them live with each other in ballgames, playgrounds, etc. Herd immunity will soon protect this age group with little risk to them....only to those around them. That is the trade off...let them live, but segregate them.
All of this can be modified as we learn more about the geographical spread, more about transmision, more about therapies, and do more antibody testing. But much of this we can start soon in areas where hospital utilization is near normal. JUST AN OPINION based on hospital and death demographics.
Your plan for getting back to normal makes more sense than anything else I have read. I am enjoying your daily updates!
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