May 27 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

Westchester County started to reopen yesterday.  That is 75 days since the 1-mile containment zone was erected around the Young Israel congregation in New Rochelle and 65 days since all businesses were shuttered. Back then I did not think this would last that long based on the neat little bell-shaped curve of the Wuhan epidemic that appeared to only last about 14 days.  So much for relying on Chinese data.

The percent-testing-positive in the New York metro area is at about 4% -- a big change since the days when almost half of everyone tested was positive.

Westchester had it lowest death count since the epidemic began -- 2 deaths.

The filtered case-count shows the asymmetric trajectory of the epidemic -- a rapid rise followed by a very slow decline.  The true case count is underreported due to both rationing of tests in the early days and the large percentage of asymtomatic cases.

My hometown of Yonkers (a subset of Westchester County) finally released some data!  The chart below shows an almost bell-shaped epidemic.  It is quite different from the general Westchester curve.  About 40% of the deaths in Yonkers were in elder-care facilities. The large spike on the right of the curve is the recategorizing of earlier deaths in elder-care to COVID-19-related.  

I have been in Michigan for the last two weeks.  Life is totally different here from Westchester.  In my Michigan county there are just over 100 cases and 6 deaths.  People are wearing masks, but there are no lines at stores.  Despite restaurants only doing curbside business, life seems to go on as normal.  People are on the beach and in their yards.  Construction and landscaping is lively.  Traffic is normal.