May 3 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

I have been comparing the Province of Bergamo, Italy to Westchester County. The epidemic curves below may not appear similar, but there are some similarities.

Bergamo Province is about the same population as Westchester (~1MM). Bergamo borders the largest metropolis in Italy (Milan) as Westchester borders NYC. From the graph it appears that Bergamo had fewer cases than Westchester (confirmed cases are 11394 in Bergamo and 29626 in Westchester), but this is just a result in the difference in the availability of testing.  10% of Westchester has been tested, while only 4% of Lombardy (the Milan region that includes Bergamo) has been tested.  Luckily the deaths are not comparable....Bergamo has 11291 deaths so far vs. 1067 in Westchester. Almost 1% of their population has died vs 0.1% of Westchester! [In the city of Bergamo 30% are over 65, more than double the 15% in Westchester. Bergamo province is less dense...1 MM people spread over 1000 sq.mi. vs 450 sq. mi. in Westchester.]

The lockdown in Bergamo started on March 9.  Westchester had a Containment Zone around New Rochelle on March 12.  All of Westchester was essentially closed by March 14, but the stay-at-home order did not officially go into effect until March 22. It is hard to judge the epidemic starts and peaks from the chart above, but Westchester trails Bergamo by 2 to 3 weeks.

Bergamo moves into Phase 2 tomorrow. Even in Phase 2 the restrictions are very high.  It is not much different than what Westchester is currently practicing.

The 7-day average (this cuts out any noise caused by the weekends which I have noticed is substantial) of New Cases is showing a favorable downturn.

The stream of new infections despite social distancing confirms how contagious this virus is.  Antibodies have show that about 40% of the Bronx (borders Westchester on the south)  have been exposed. Westchester is about 15%, but I am sure that varies across the county.  I live in a town in Westchester that abuts the Bronx and it would not surprise me if my town was closer to 40% exposed.

Ninety Eight percent of those infected do just fine.  If we did not know who the 2% vulnerable were, this would be scary.  But we know almost excactly who the 2% are!!!  Why don't we just act on that!!!