Our leaders are finally starting to act on the data. Yesterday the county started testing everyone in nursing homes in Westchester, residents and workers. From the beginning it was obvious that the elderly with underlying conditions were most vulnerable. Forty percent of the deaths in Yonkers (a city in Westchester County) are in nursing homes. In fact, several nursing home deaths from weeks ago are being recategorized as COVID-19 related, so that percentage will go up. The number of deaths reported today is unusually high and is believed to contain these prior deaths. The last three weeks of death data can be approximated by a linear decay (not a Bell Curve!).
The number of active cases in Westchester, the number hospitalized, and the number of positive cases continue to decline. There is noise in the data -- for example yesterday experienced a data dump of test data -- but the filtered data are trending down.
It is a good time to revisit the suggestions I made on
this blog four weeks ago on April 9. I had only one condition for starting the reopening by region -- hospitalizations drops to near normal -- not the complicated 7 metrics required by Governor Cuomo. Much of the data I used to come up with my suggested actions to reopen have not change in the last four months.
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