June 4 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

It has been 84 days since the New Rochelle Containment Zone was established in Westchester County, 74 days since all restaurants were ordered closed, and 9 days since Westchester entered Phase 1 of reopening.  The increased number of personal interactions of Phase I are expected to be reflected in a higher number of new cases, but that is not evident yet.  The graph below shows New Cases for Westchester, NYC, and Nassau County. The curve is flat or still decreasing.

The percent testing positive still continues to drop, despite the increased interactions of Phase 1.

The comparison of New Cases with Bergamo Italy and with a "Bell-Curve" epidemic are shown below.  The epidemics in Bergamo and Westchester did not follow a Bell-Curve. The cases rose exponentially to epidemic status then slowly decreased.  Bergamo entered their "Phase 2" four weeks ago. Their case count is very noisy.  Today they reported only one new case, but other days they have reported over 50.

Deaths in Westchester have been in the single digits for 18 consecutive days.  There is a slightly positive trend.

The NY Governor has offered free COVID tests for anyone involved in a 'protest.' It will be interesting to see if this has an effect on the numbers. If there is no spike in new cases, does that mean we are wasting our time on social distancing?  If there is a spike in new cases, does it mean the governor erred in letting the 'protests' take place?

Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any more recent data on prevalence of the antibody.  Several weeks ago it was about 13% in Westchester, but it may be much higher now. That would be helpful information as stores and restaurants start to reopen.

This whole episode has been so unscientific from the start.  The experts were wrong so many times: the WHO stating that the virus could not be transmitted from person to person; that face masks were bad...good...required; that we can stop the spread...; that testing was the answer; that we can control by track and trace...  I am sure we will soon find out that countries like Sweden...who did not shut down businesses...fared much better.  Maybe not in fatalities, but in economic and general well-being metrics.

Well, this is starting to bore me.  I hear you saying, "Me too."  So I am vacationing for the next few days.