May 6 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

New cases in Westchester fell to their lowest levels since March 18 (red line).  Bergamo, Italy is into their third day of reopening.  Their new cases fell to 12! (green line)

Deaths in Westchester have been at 15 for two days in a row.  Hospitalizations continue to decline.

The percent testing positive continues its predictable decline.  There is very little noise in the data from NYC, Nassau, and Westchester. They are all declining in unison.  In the next two or three days, the percentage will drop below 10 which will be in line with with other areas of the country with mild epidemics.

All is preceding well with Bergamo's 'reopening.'  The restrictions on travel are still very high.  Police have set up roadblocks to inspect vehicles for proper papers for travel. Italians cannot travel outside of their region without a legitimate business reason. They cannot travel outside the region to family or second homes.  Only 3% were cited for "being outside the home for reason not among those granted."

As mentioned in prior blogs, Bergamo is a province of about 1MM residents and has much in common with Westchester. However, their population of elderly is very high.  As a result, their fatalities per capita are much higher than Westchester.   The number of deaths in Bergamo in March was more than five times the number of deaths in March 2019.

In March, 5500 Bergamo residents over 65-years-old died from COVID-19.  A normal year would have claimed only 750. (Westchester total deaths is currently at 1116.  About 80% of those are over 65.) Demographic data states that 30% of Bergamo is over 65, so the chances of dying from COVID-19 is still less than 2% for that age group.

Bergamo Deaths for Men and Women