July 4 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NY

A month has passed since my last COVID update.  Despite all of the changes involved in "reopening" there has been no change in trajectory of the metrics I have been tracking.

Deaths have continued to decresase. There has been no COVID-related death in Westchester County in the last four days.

The percent testing positive continued to decline.  It has been hovering around 1% during the last two weeks. NYC and Nassau County (Long Island) have been tracking very similarly.

A cluster of positive cases in Westchester was traced to a gathering of high school students. This may have been the cause of the first day of greater than 60 new cases since June 14.  Even so, the 7-day averages do not show a meaningful change from the past several weeks.

The fact that protests, holiday gatherings, graduation gatherings, restaurant openings, hair salon openings, and other activities with increased person-to-person contact have NOT changed the rate of new cases makes me think that the virus has EITHER burned itself out in Westchester (all of the people that were susceptible to the virus have already gotten it) OR the specific measures now being undone, have nothing to do with containing the virus. I have heard no one suggest either of these possibilities.