Saturday, March 28, 2020

March 28 - COVID in Westchester County, NY

Day 13 of National 15 days to Slow the Spread.   It may be slowing, but unfortunately there is no way to measure in real time.

Latest on hydroxychloroquine:
Dr. Zelenko is treating the patients in Kiryas Joel and Monsey.  It appears he is treating prophylactically. He says 669 patients have been treated, but there is no where close to that number testing positive in Rockland County.
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-letter-from-dr-zelenko-to-israel-ministry-of-health-and-president-trump.html
Dr. Raoult has treated 80 more patients:  https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf
Here is link to his earlier paper: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf

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One more interesting thing......I don't put a lot of faith in these numbers where the denominator is unknown, but it is encouraging that the death rate in Westchester is only 0.1%. 10 deaths in 7,187 cases. [It is likely that the death reporting number is lagging the reporting of new cases.]

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The March 28 numbers for Westchester include 688 new cases bringing the total to 7875 or about 8 per 1000. Westchester still has more cases per capita than any county in the country. 1588 tests were performed in Westchester, 43% were positive, meaning testing is still rationed?  The trend in new cases over the last four days is encouraging: 1253, 1243, 688. Unfortunately, I think these numbers are not a true picture as the numbers correlate with the number of tests done.  For some reason the number of tests performed is dropping.  Is that just working off a backlog? Or is there a decrease in demand?  or is there a rationing of tests to counties that have more need, like NYC? If you do fewer tests, there are fewer new cases.  Do zero tests, and you will get zero new cases.  Here is a chart I threw together.  I wish I had more of the data.  When I find it, I will add it.  The chart is updated daily.   www.bit.ly/COVID-Westchester   These google charts do not appear to work on Apple Phones or Safari.



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Abbotts 5 minute test using the ID NOW instrument.  https://www.alere.com/en/home/product-details/id-now.html
https://www.abbott.com/corpnewsroom/product-and-innovation/detect-covid-19-in-as-little-as-5-minutes.html
Thanks to Alton Johnson for these links.

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