March 29 - COVID-19 In Westchester County, NY

I have decided to use this venue as the repository of my COVID-19 musings.  Pardon the departure from the Joel Campbell Story.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

I am currently living in Westchester County, NY about one mile outside of the original 1-mile-radius "quarantine" zone that centered on the Young Israel Synagogue in New Rochelle, the first COVID-19 cluster on the East Coast. By March 10, Westchester residents were starting to restrict their movements based on what was happening in New Rochelle and by March 13 the semi-panic had set in (empty store shelves). Over the next 2 weeks, Westchester grew to about 1% of the population confirmed positive. It still has twice the cases-per-capita vs. New York City that borders it on the south. If Westchester were a state, it would be second on the list of most cases following the state of NY (Update: NJ passed Westchester in number of cases today).

The real number of infected residents is still a mystery as testing is rationed - predominantly to the hospitalized population -  with 30-45% of the tests coming back positive. I have published the county public numbers here (www.bit.ly/COVID-Westchester), but there are many problems with this data too numerous to talk about here, so don't use it to jump to conclusions.  Westchester is too late to "identify and isolate."  I hope, where ever you are, it is not too late, but the existence of so many asymptomatic spreaders may leave you with the same fate as Westchester. Be Well.