tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42995077601906815262024-03-06T01:02:18.189-05:00Joel Campbell (1735-1828): His Life and TimesJoel Campbell was born in the shadow of Newark Mountain as America was coming to life. His long lifetime overlapped those of Washington, Jefferson, and Adams. Today, he has more than 300,000 descendants. <p> <b>All original content ©2013-2023 Jay Campbell. </b> No portions can be copied to any other publicly accessible media, print or electronic, without permission of the author.</p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.comBlogger370125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-29351002633494628392024-02-05T19:32:00.005-05:002024-02-06T07:54:27.466-05:00 The Jonathan Campbell Branch on the Y-DNA Tree<p>BREAKING NEWS!</p><p>A branch on the patriarchal genetic tree has been confirmed to be that of Jonathan Campbell, born 1770 in New York. The branch, which is synonymous with a Y-DNA mutation known as FTA92871, is unique to Jonathan and his male descendants. This mutation originated with Jonathan. His father and brothers do not have it.</p><p>You can view the tree here:</p><p><a href="https://www.familytreedna.com/public/y-dna-haplotree/R;name=R-FTA92871">https://www.familytreedna.com/public/y-dna-haplotree/R;name=R-FTA92871</a><br />When the page loads, click the right arrow to expose the branches.</p><p>The next branch down the tree has been identified as FTB16962. This person is estimated to have lived around 1600. He has not yet been identified.</p><p>If you are a descendant of Jonathan, here is your Campbell tree working into the past...</p><p>Jonathan 1770 - FTA92871<br />Joel ~1735<br />Samuel ~1700<br />Robert ~1660<br />Archibald ~1630<br />.<br />.<br />FTB16962 (Scotland)~1600<br />.<br />.<br />FTA93117 (Craignish Campbells) ~1370-1600 See Blog <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2024/01/christian-campbell-abt-1350-craignish.html">Christian Campbell - Abt 1350 - A Craignish Campbell</a><br />.<br />.<br />FTB13858 (Campbell Main Line) ~1150</p><p>Jonathan was too young to have fought in the Revolutionary War, but he certainly experienced many of its events in the Hudson Valley during its long duration, 1776-1783. His older brothers and father undoubtedly shared war stories with him. When he was 13 in 1783, he may have walked the short distance from his father's farm to New Windsor where Washington's Army was waiting for peace negotiations to be finalized. </p><p>As a young man, he moved farther west to what would become Deerpark, New York. There he owned property on a flood plain of the Neversink River called 'Campbell Flats" by the local surveyor. </p><p>He moved again with extended family to the area where the Chemung River meets the Susquehanna near the NY/PA border. </p><p>He raised a very large family (13 children?). Ten of his descendants are part of the Campbell DNA Project and have been tested for Y-DNA markers including three that have been tested specifically for the FTA92871 polymorphism.</p><p>Maybe someone can write a book on this man who now has his own branch on the Y-DNA Haplotree.</p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-89805000454397518052024-01-25T13:41:00.004-05:002024-02-05T06:52:11.016-05:00Christian Campbell - Abt 1350 - A Craignish Campbell<p>My recent research has been focused on the Campbell paternal line. The breakthroughs in Y-DNA (see prior articles) have uncovered more deep ancestors. </p><p>One such discovery is my link to the Craignish branch of the Campbells. The Craignish line started with the second son of a Campbell on the main (Argyll) line in about 1130. Somewhere along the Craignish line, a non-inheriting son (or a bastard) started the branch to me.</p><p>My common ancestor on the Craignish line is estimated to be in the 1400-1600 period. Interestingly, the genealogy of Craignish is fairly well documented in this period. In 1720, one of the Craignish family put to manuscript the history as he had come to know it. It has been published as The Manuscript History of Craignish. (see link below)</p><p>One of the more interesting stories in his account (and one whose accuracy has been questioned) is the story of Christian, the daughter of Dugall Campbell of Craignish, who lived in about 1350. Just remember, if you are in the haplogroup FTA93117, you are related to these people.</p><p>This Dugall had no sons, so on his death, the clan lands would move to his brother, Malcolm, or to Malcolm's eldest son, Ronald. </p><p>The deadly nature of family quarrels is illustrated by the story of Finguala, the sister of Dugall. Finguala's husband had a quarrel with Dugall. The dispute led the husband to attempt an ambush of Dugall, which backfired, resulting in the death of Finguala's husband. (p 214).</p><p>The manuscript's author, Alexander Campbell (abt 1670-1725), referred to Dugall's daughter as "the Notorious Christian." [Note that this Alexander lived concurrently with my line's first American, Robert Campbell of Newark, NJ].</p><p>Christian married McDougal of Lorne and by him had a son. This son supposed that the Craignish lands were his inheritance and proceeded to demand rent from the inhabitants. Christian's cousin, Ronald (son of her father's brother), defended what he saw to be his inheritance. In one of the skirmishes, Christian's son was killed.</p><p>After the death of her son and first husband, Christian married Alexander McNauchton. Upon his death, she received a third of his Barony.</p><p>But Christian was not done. She courted a younger Iver Campbell, head-servant of the Chief of Clan Campbell. By convincing him to "ly with her" in a wood near the Strath of Craignish and subsequently "happened to be with child", she obtained the Clan Chief's approval for her marriage. But the approval was at the price of signing over the deed's to the lands of her father to the Chief (which she had no right to do.) But who was to question the most powerful man in the Highlands?</p><p>Thus, Christian defrauded her cousin, Ronald, and his descendants (I guess that is sort of me) of their rightful inheritance. It left a bitter taste in the mouths of Ronald's descendants for years to come.</p><p>The Manuscript History is here: <a href="https://digital.nls.uk/scottish-history-society-publications/browse/archive/126513622" target="_blank"> https://digital.nls.uk/scottish-history-society-publications/browse/archive/126513622</a></p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-59515262516381383552023-11-04T13:38:00.002-04:002023-11-04T13:42:31.354-04:00Clans and ChiefsRecent YDNA evidence that I am descended from the Craignish line of Campbells made me think....so what?<div><br /></div><div>The whole idea of clans and chiefs is very foreign to an American, like myself. But the concept apparently had a lot of value in feudal times. Related persons working together with a recognized leader could accomplish more than a disorganized group. A King could in turn control these groups by "officially" recognizing them and their leader. </div><div><br /></div><div>This is where we get to the confusing part. Say I get together with a group of like-minded people and they choose me to be their leader and we all agree to call me the Grand Poohbah. Nope. That does not work. The right to be called a "Clan" or a clan "Chief" can only be bestowed by your Sovereign. [Didn't we win this argument in 1776?] </div><div><br /></div><div>To quote from the <a href="https://courtofthelordlyon.scot/index.htm" target="_blank">Court of the Lord Lyon</a> [more on this guy later] ... "The best definition of a clan .... is contained in Nisbet's "System of Heraldry", published in 1722: 'A social group consisting of an aggregate of distinct erected families actually descended, or accepting themselves as descendants of a common ancestor, and which has been received by the Sovereign through its Supreme Officer of Honour, the Lord Lyon, as an honourable community whereof all of the members on establishing right to, or receiving fresh grants of, personal hereditary nobility will be awarded arms as determinate or indeterminate cadets both as may be of the chief family of the clan.' A clan is therefore a community which is both distinguished by heraldry and recognised by the Sovereign. At the head of this honourable community is the chief." </div><div><br /></div><div>The Court of the Lord Lyon is part of the Office of the Crown and has been in existence since the 1600s. This was undoubtedly the English continuation of the Seanchaí (sennachie) system used by the Scots in prior centuries. Sennachies were appointed by their clan chiefs to record genealogical, legal, and other historical matters. However, the purview of the current Lord Lyon is strictly heraldic, meaning that they are the only source for granting a "Coat of Arms." By Scottish law, if a clan is not distinguished by heraldry (Coat of Arms) and recognized by the sovereign (via the Court of Lord Lyon), then the clan chief, and hence his clan, have no official recognition. </div><div><br /></div><div>Of most importance to genealogists, is that these sennachies and heraldic officers have accumulated genealogies for many of the lines of nobility including cadet branches. The Scottish nobility practiced primogeniture...the oldest son inherited everything. The younger sons, should they manage to acquire lands and power through other means (marriage, inheritance, hard work?, luck?), were referred to as cadets. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Craignish line is a cadet branch of the main Campbell line of Argyll. It split off very early in Campbell history, about 1150. Its descendants are pretty well documented. (see Manuscript History of Craignish by Herbert Campbell) My line appears to have branched off rather late (~1600) which is within historical times where making a documented connection is not unrealistic. </div><div><br /></div><div>I leave you with a link to an illegible graphic of the <a href="https://www.ccsna.org/cadet-branches-clan-campbell" target="_blank">cadet branches of the Campbell tree</a> which have Coats of Arms. It is impossible to read, but one gets the message that there are a lot.</div><div><br /></div><div>More on Craignish in a future blog.</div>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-32157717591913889512023-10-22T12:59:00.001-04:002023-12-08T14:15:45.122-05:00Moses Campbell of the Revolutionary War<p> In a <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2023/10/benjamin-campbell-of-newark-mountain.html" target="_blank">recent post</a> I described the family bible of Moses Campbell who lived near Newark Mountain, NJ during the Revolutionary War. I described <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2016/12/more-evidence-of-newark-mountain-origins.html" target="_blank">my relationship to him back in 2016</a>. More of the genealogy is <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2015/03/more-y-dna-story-of-aaron-campbell-of.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p>One of the greatest gifts to genealogists of this period was an overdue law in 1836 which allowed veterans or widows of the Revolutionary War to apply for a pension. To obtain the pension the applicant needed to appear before a justice and submit the details of service. By 1836, most participants in the War were dead, but even so, an amazing number of applications were filed. Evidence submitted included depositions from friends, neighbors, relatives, and fellow soldiers, and even pages from family bibles. This has all been digitized and is available from many sources. (Fold3, Ancestry.com)</p><p>Moses died in 1808, but his wife Catharine was alive in 1836. She was 80 years old and so feeble that she could not appear in person at the courthouse. To make a long story short, she was granted a pension in 1838. She died the following year.</p><p>Moses' initial service in 1776 was as a private in the militia attached to Colonel Van Cortlands NJ regiment, stationed near Belleville, Newark, or Elizabethtown. According Catharine's testimony he was in the Battles of Connecticut Farms and Springfield [in 1780]. These battles were literally in his backyard. The road to Springfield, down which the British marched, led right through the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e5df023picgc7i98h6nm5/1-1740-Samuel-Property.jpg?rlkey=b767jnxdrmuwk4tx1iurrqyjq&dl=0" target="_blank">ancestral property of Moses' great grandfather, Robert</a>. She mentions that she was married in the home of Gabriel Ogden by a Pompton, NJ minister, Rev. Marenus.</p><p>Included in her pension file are copies of the pages from the family bible, a deposition from her son Benjamin, and a deposition from a contemporary of Moses, 87-year-old, Simon Van Ess. Simon stated that Moses was a millwright at the iron furnace of Gabriel Ogden in Pompton and resided with him. Another contemporary, 87-year-old, York Van Gelder, testified the same. </p><p>Isaac Tichenor, 77, testified that he and Moses enlisted in 1781. They were stationed at Morristown, NJ, then marched to Dobbs Ferry via Patterson, NJ. [Dobbs Ferry was the departure point for Washington's and Rochambeau's troops enroute to what would be the Battle of Yorktown in 1781.] They were then marched to Connecticut Farms [near his home in NJ] where they were discharged.</p><p>David Lyons, 80, recalled being with Moses in New Brunswick, NJ on their way to join the army [which was marching from Philadelphia towards Monmouth]. At that time they heard of the Battle of Monmouth [NJ, 1778] having been fought.</p><p>Caleb Davis, 70, stated that he was a neighbor of Moses during the War. He further stated that Moses was in a skirmish with the British at the Hackensack River [probably New Bridge Landing, a critical crossing where many skirmishes occurred] and "had a bullet shot threw his coat." Moses Dodd, 82, was also deposed and "thinks he saw him under arms in a skirmish at Belleville."</p><p>Isaac Dodd testified that Moses was in the company of Captain Amos Dodd.</p><p>ALL OF THAT INFORMATION WAS THANKS TO THE PENSION FILES!</p><p>Now for some speculation. If Moses was so close to Gabriel Ogden (owner of the Pompton Ironworks) that he lived and was married in Gabriel's home, wouldn't it make sense that Moses was working at the Pompton Ironworks during the months of the year when he was not with the army? Ogden had purchased the Ironworks in 1774. During the winter of 1776-1777 the Ironworks was filling an order from General Knox for 7000 cannonballs. I bet Moses was there helping out.</p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-37168354947092974012023-10-20T07:37:00.000-04:002023-10-20T07:37:27.558-04:00New "E-Mail Subscription" Provider<p>My blog has been neglected in the past few years. During that time the "e-mail subscription" service offered by google (feedburner) was discontinued. </p><p>My new service is a <a href="https://follow.it" target="_blank">Feedburner Alternative</a>. If you are already a subscriber, your e-mail has been rolled into the new service. Let me know of any issues you have with it.</p><p>New subscribers can enter their E-Mail in the box labelled: "Get new posts by email:"</p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-3238184266296167282023-10-19T20:10:00.003-04:002023-10-20T07:40:09.630-04:00Benjamin Campbell of Newark Mountain, New Jersey<p>Benjamin Campbell and his two sons, Moses and Aaron, came to my attention as I read <a href="https://archive.org/details/historyoforanges00wick/page/150/mode/2up?view=theater&q=cammelhttps://archive.org/details/historyoforanges00wick/page/150/mode/2up?" target="_blank">Stephen Wickes' History of the Oranges</a>... for the first time more than a decade ago. I thought there must be a relationship to my Campbell ancestors who had lived in the same area, but there was no documented connection.</p><p>And, sadly, a decade later, there is still no documented connection. What we do have is unequivocal evidence that we share a common ancestor in the circa 1600s time period. He is known by the Y-DNA mutation that is unique to him and his male descendants: R-FTB16962.</p><p>Wickes' entry is a baptism in the records of the Newark Mountain Society for the three Campbells on August 3, 1758. That was all I knew of them until I corresponded with a male descendant of Moses. In that descendant's possession was a copy of the Moses Campbell family bible where the family had recorded births and deaths. What a gold mine for his genealogy!</p><p>[More on <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2016/12/more-evidence-of-newark-mountain-origins.html" target="_blank">Moses Campbell</a> from a 2016 blog post.]</p><p>From the bible we learn the names of all 13 of Moses' children, 10 of whom appear to have lived to adulthood. The oldest child, Rachel, was born November 30, 1773 and died before her first birthday. Their 5th child was also named Rachel, born August 1, 1779</p><p>The second child, Anna, was born September 17, 1775, married a Baldwin, and died in 1836. Hers was the only death of a married child recorded, so it is presumed the other children lived past 1836.</p><p>The youngest child, James C., was born March 12, 1797. His oldest sister, Anna, was 21 at his birth and his parents were 45 and 41. It was James' descendants that appear to have preserved the family bible.</p><p><br /></p><p>Below is page 1 of the family bible showing the birthdates of this large family of 13 children.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiawEJacyLD1hsadZ1suOGoZsqE17BCgKZ7GtLKceQtZvnxVqh50pbErLEKel25y6cqeEBVH32FQHwYi8rx_rXgtWmC06YYz5BVlytDElSdg-4ZeJ_6bsG5sGJfPJ0cnW0arjl0yGlLkjkBAZWwvZmLoCTVZ1s2pzjyPLsXO_FwBKzDBJuSqxvFcIbtblQ/s2263/Moses%20Campbell%20-%20Family%20Bible%20p1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2263" data-original-width="1784" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiawEJacyLD1hsadZ1suOGoZsqE17BCgKZ7GtLKceQtZvnxVqh50pbErLEKel25y6cqeEBVH32FQHwYi8rx_rXgtWmC06YYz5BVlytDElSdg-4ZeJ_6bsG5sGJfPJ0cnW0arjl0yGlLkjkBAZWwvZmLoCTVZ1s2pzjyPLsXO_FwBKzDBJuSqxvFcIbtblQ/w410-h520/Moses%20Campbell%20-%20Family%20Bible%20p1.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>The births are continued on page 2 along with some deaths.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDa2uGDWJoewIC1jzTovZlJ8mTObhwDvdxxQmLVzfo-AXDoynwcF_Qn2LMLxKW8OtqLuy87YraA3Ud-fXbMH7IY7e04MismRfFGG4jkJB0jmpR3rxmVL78YV1AzO4lu5AfbRPlD7p_CpaLfxqRCqQhLBypPI08lYR86LF98x6yEf1y_vLcRHKIZEPZYBc/s2312/Moses%20Campbell%20-%20Family%20Bible%20p2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2312" data-original-width="1776" height="508" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDa2uGDWJoewIC1jzTovZlJ8mTObhwDvdxxQmLVzfo-AXDoynwcF_Qn2LMLxKW8OtqLuy87YraA3Ud-fXbMH7IY7e04MismRfFGG4jkJB0jmpR3rxmVL78YV1AzO4lu5AfbRPlD7p_CpaLfxqRCqQhLBypPI08lYR86LF98x6yEf1y_vLcRHKIZEPZYBc/w391-h508/Moses%20Campbell%20-%20Family%20Bible%20p2.jpg" width="391" /></a></div><br /><p>Moses and Catharine were married on April the 18th, 1773....almost exactly two years before the "Shots Hear 'Round the World" at Lexington and Concord. Despite having a family (in fact they had twins in 1779), Moses served in the local militia during the Revolutionary War, which lasted from 1775 until 1783. More on that in another post.</p><p><br /></p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-14932636588692846632023-10-14T10:27:00.000-04:002023-10-14T10:27:26.347-04:00The Latest on Campbell Y-DNA<p> This is my first blog in quite some time. Some have asked if I was alive. Alive I am. I find myself in a new state, with a retired wife, and a new cat.</p><p>With three 2023 AG National Championships under my belt (Sprint Triathlon, Sprint Duathlon, and Olympic Duathlon) it may be time to get back to some genealogy??</p><p>The YDNA scene is heating up. Just released is DNA evidence that the Argyll Campbells and the Glenorchy Campbells are not related. <a href="https://www.strath.ac.uk/studywithus/centreforlifelonglearning/genealogy/geneticgenealogyresearch/scottishclansandfamilies/campbellfamily/">Campbell family | University of Strathclyde</a></p><p>What??? Did someone just take on the Campbell name or did a Campbell take on a foster son?</p><p>In my Campbell line, we have definitively shown our connection to the Craignish line, a very early branch off the Argyll line.....via YDNA. More on this later.</p><p>Of most interest is that we have enough participants that JoelCampbell1735 now has his own branch on the YDNA tree!!! It is called R-FTA92871. Just go here: <a href="https://www.familytreedna.com/public/y-dna-haplotree/R;name=R-FTA92871">Haplotree | FamilyTreeDNA</a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGcJ7zzfnr7Wjij9Af7k5we4lGC1MCRDQLK5Jr0S5gMwJw37u3wRb2yCoV0Erb1jv94vcLkKpfDfH0pOrVUW2zgK3qthUhhtri7VO70r_1W2TjMeg-sd63MObKNiWwebWQT5Is-rinTfyfiIyuj_QI_PeNb5xJo0UFl00mw1dToujbew19tWE2vUsHQc_e" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="641" data-original-width="1331" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGcJ7zzfnr7Wjij9Af7k5we4lGC1MCRDQLK5Jr0S5gMwJw37u3wRb2yCoV0Erb1jv94vcLkKpfDfH0pOrVUW2zgK3qthUhhtri7VO70r_1W2TjMeg-sd63MObKNiWwebWQT5Is-rinTfyfiIyuj_QI_PeNb5xJo0UFl00mw1dToujbew19tWE2vUsHQc_e=w464-h223" width="464" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>More later!</p>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-72182311235824024152020-07-14T16:49:00.001-04:002020-07-14T16:49:19.028-04:00July 14 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYThis is my last COVID blog-post...... I hope.<br />
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It has been over four months since the start of the 'Containment Zone' in New Rochelle. It has been 49 days since the start of Phase I of reopening Westchester. If you stare at the data, no action taken in the last 2 months is affecting the trajectory of deaths, cases, or percent testing positive. They have been at a steady value since the middle of May.<br />
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Almost one third of the population of Westchester has been tested. The number infected in Westchester has not been determined recently, but the prevalance of the antibody in previous studies was about 15%. That is supposedly not high enough to bestow herd immunity on the region, but the data indicates that there is enough immunity to contain the epidemic with current practices. Loosening practices over the last two months has not worsened the infection rate.<br />
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Despite hand-wringing in other metropolitan areas over increased cases and hospitalizations, this has not happened in NYC or its adjoining counties (Westchester). This is unlikely due to better social distancing in NYC versus other metro areas. It is more likely due to the level of immunity.<br />
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The four plots below show how the four metrics I track have not changed in the last 2 months:<br />
1) New Cases versus a comparable region in Italy (Bergamo)<br />
2) New Cases versus NYC and Nassau County (weekly noise filtered out)<br />
3) Percent of Westchester testing positive (unfiltered)<br />
4) Daily Deaths in Westchester<br />
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Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-16639440989702361872020-07-04T16:54:00.002-04:002020-07-04T16:54:51.943-04:00July 4 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYA month has passed since my last COVID update. Despite all of the changes involved in "reopening" there has been no change in trajectory of the metrics I have been tracking.<br />
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Deaths have continued to decresase. There has been no COVID-related death in Westchester County in the last four days.<br />
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The percent testing positive continued to decline. It has been hovering around 1% during the last two weeks. NYC and Nassau County (Long Island) have been tracking very similarly.</div>
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A cluster of positive cases in Westchester was traced to a gathering of high school students. This may have been the cause of the first day of greater than 60 new cases since June 14. Even so, the 7-day averages do not show a meaningful change from the past several weeks.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFRd73HnpzTicgtJHRZCNvwheJ1sNNzqGK_3vkkfgIV04SRYQlRfzx1XUdZTahjLMLYbxiVNKZfwkHQj60SzBQ4RKhAEqn5F74xt8YBRLdiHYxFlJ1YxJqdicYJ4aq1l3kpcsBv3eaDq0/s1600/2020-07-04_16-27-19+COVID+LPF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="589" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFRd73HnpzTicgtJHRZCNvwheJ1sNNzqGK_3vkkfgIV04SRYQlRfzx1XUdZTahjLMLYbxiVNKZfwkHQj60SzBQ4RKhAEqn5F74xt8YBRLdiHYxFlJ1YxJqdicYJ4aq1l3kpcsBv3eaDq0/s400/2020-07-04_16-27-19+COVID+LPF.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The fact that protests, holiday gatherings, graduation gatherings, restaurant openings, hair salon openings, and other activities with increased person-to-person contact have NOT changed the rate of new cases makes me think that the virus has EITHER burned itself out in Westchester (all of the people that were susceptible to the virus have already gotten it) OR the specific measures now being undone, have nothing to do with containing the virus. I have heard no one suggest either of these possibilities.</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-72130177479374318392020-06-04T18:04:00.001-04:002020-06-04T18:04:08.318-04:00June 4 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYIt has been 84 days since the New Rochelle Containment Zone was established in Westchester County, 74 days since all restaurants were ordered closed, and 9 days since Westchester entered Phase 1 of reopening. The increased number of personal interactions of Phase I are expected to be reflected in a higher number of new cases, but that is not evident yet. The graph below shows New Cases for Westchester, NYC, and Nassau County. The curve is flat or still decreasing.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ6kl6v6YtU-heDPSHQbq1dOk4FwvJh55c-1bOzjT81fyv09h76k3qFA42IKTENthtPerv0c5v9qv6QGoxePUBx8FIo2Tt61tVVQNEnjHewOb4sgTIsmYXKpp1i-nf63VTMBeRsI06h5w/s1600/2020-06-04_17-13-34+COVID+LPF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="586" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ6kl6v6YtU-heDPSHQbq1dOk4FwvJh55c-1bOzjT81fyv09h76k3qFA42IKTENthtPerv0c5v9qv6QGoxePUBx8FIo2Tt61tVVQNEnjHewOb4sgTIsmYXKpp1i-nf63VTMBeRsI06h5w/s400/2020-06-04_17-13-34+COVID+LPF.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The percent testing positive still continues to drop, despite the increased interactions of Phase 1.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFdlR_KjvkFUNweSTSKXivmru2I6VS2mvppID4o6pwxuXWh-Qt0D9Xhb7hdYMTPSWlnY-IERpjX_tvUT76ZAVojeOsdgT-T4ueld9s3xjkhUnA5s_ujb3mx7riS3jt-o6gWdgsUPBJrrU/s1600/2020-06-04_17-14-48+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="588" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFdlR_KjvkFUNweSTSKXivmru2I6VS2mvppID4o6pwxuXWh-Qt0D9Xhb7hdYMTPSWlnY-IERpjX_tvUT76ZAVojeOsdgT-T4ueld9s3xjkhUnA5s_ujb3mx7riS3jt-o6gWdgsUPBJrrU/s400/2020-06-04_17-14-48+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The comparison of New Cases with Bergamo Italy and with a "Bell-Curve" epidemic are shown below. The epidemics in Bergamo and Westchester did not follow a Bell-Curve. The cases rose exponentially to epidemic status then slowly decreased. Bergamo entered their "Phase 2" four weeks ago. Their case count is very noisy. Today they reported only one new case, but other days they have reported over 50.</div>
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Deaths in Westchester have been in the single digits for 18 consecutive days. There is a slightly positive trend.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqbqAdWpMDl-mmVfJz8Eg4Y5mRewsCu_AoQjy1NniA8BObYhAb4JIA8sMwNqqM_zNsP5ImptxvDqi-H4_7covSR9FX6xON-hDxZ_EKlh75_MOTDQHNJ1Xmq8jb1UhNaBP9i1uXoFESQdU/s1600/2020-06-04_17-09-02+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="588" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqbqAdWpMDl-mmVfJz8Eg4Y5mRewsCu_AoQjy1NniA8BObYhAb4JIA8sMwNqqM_zNsP5ImptxvDqi-H4_7covSR9FX6xON-hDxZ_EKlh75_MOTDQHNJ1Xmq8jb1UhNaBP9i1uXoFESQdU/s400/2020-06-04_17-09-02+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The NY Governor has offered free COVID tests for anyone involved in a 'protest.' It will be interesting to see if this has an effect on the numbers. If there is no spike in new cases, does that mean we are wasting our time on social distancing? If there is a spike in new cases, does it mean the governor erred in letting the 'protests' take place?</div>
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Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any more recent data on prevalence of the antibody. Several weeks ago it was about 13% in Westchester, but it may be much higher now. That would be helpful information as stores and restaurants start to reopen.</div>
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This whole episode has been so unscientific from the start. The experts were wrong so many times: the WHO stating that the virus could not be transmitted from person to person; that face masks were bad...good...required; that we can stop the spread...; that testing was the answer; that we can control by track and trace... I am sure we will soon find out that countries like Sweden...who did not shut down businesses...fared much better. Maybe not in fatalities, but in economic and general well-being metrics.</div>
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Well, this is starting to bore me. I hear you saying, "Me too." So I am vacationing for the next few days.</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-28476045222561437722020-05-27T07:58:00.000-04:002020-05-27T07:58:12.557-04:00May 27 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYWestchester County started to reopen yesterday. That is 75 days since the 1-mile containment zone was erected around the Young Israel congregation in New Rochelle and 65 days since all businesses were shuttered. Back then I did not think this would last that long based on the neat little bell-shaped curve of the Wuhan epidemic that appeared to only last about 14 days. So much for relying on Chinese data.<br />
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The percent-testing-positive in the New York metro area is at about 4% -- a big change since the days when almost half of everyone tested was positive.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOnjcYnfU9V_jWhwgaaWL8ULlHrGkJr-bUT-tTTzPBB1x3z9nEQYdYt3BMR9_Zbegnm9zlNuRa7PsreP5mX_vdJ1cRYMmiUxuhA5ZIjWmzWajBKS489KkSTsRx14m4UWXBwOGninSl-wc/s1600/2020-05-27_7-06-19+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="584" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOnjcYnfU9V_jWhwgaaWL8ULlHrGkJr-bUT-tTTzPBB1x3z9nEQYdYt3BMR9_Zbegnm9zlNuRa7PsreP5mX_vdJ1cRYMmiUxuhA5ZIjWmzWajBKS489KkSTsRx14m4UWXBwOGninSl-wc/s400/2020-05-27_7-06-19+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Westchester had it lowest death count since the epidemic began -- 2 deaths.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBtybI9VkNazKhateJ5L6WgqSb5kEGKj-0scVGAWlRbw_gBBDuRUAEKXBkTk6QhYoVW7ZcbUWN9oR2OGkIB5Q6w340tMzcVVgmE2OBS9HTswnHIFt2Tp4Ci9qcHHbcRE9zjFQg5qN4rzY/s1600/2020-05-27_7-02-44+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="589" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBtybI9VkNazKhateJ5L6WgqSb5kEGKj-0scVGAWlRbw_gBBDuRUAEKXBkTk6QhYoVW7ZcbUWN9oR2OGkIB5Q6w340tMzcVVgmE2OBS9HTswnHIFt2Tp4Ci9qcHHbcRE9zjFQg5qN4rzY/s400/2020-05-27_7-02-44+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The filtered case-count shows the asymmetric trajectory of the epidemic -- a rapid rise followed by a very slow decline. The true case count is underreported due to both rationing of tests in the early days and the large percentage of asymtomatic cases.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTBOzHsyRi8ou-h_W3p5NT7yT2xOZUiPHsKilN1-uIDLIvtfmVJ__VQC7DkRNnlD1fS_daRmjMiqNQldy1mkJZQyMsNX_rUftKNNR0j745NpNZ5A0SYrrKPf93UvpV3AiX_bYVwUJjoDs/s1600/2020-05-27_7-04-07+COVID+Cases.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="353" data-original-width="585" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTBOzHsyRi8ou-h_W3p5NT7yT2xOZUiPHsKilN1-uIDLIvtfmVJ__VQC7DkRNnlD1fS_daRmjMiqNQldy1mkJZQyMsNX_rUftKNNR0j745NpNZ5A0SYrrKPf93UvpV3AiX_bYVwUJjoDs/s400/2020-05-27_7-04-07+COVID+Cases.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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My hometown of Yonkers (a subset of Westchester County) finally released some data! The chart below shows an almost bell-shaped epidemic. It is quite different from the general Westchester curve. About 40% of the deaths in Yonkers were in elder-care facilities. The large spike on the right of the curve is the recategorizing of earlier deaths in elder-care to COVID-19-related. </div>
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I have been in Michigan for the last two weeks. Life is totally different here from Westchester. In my Michigan county there are just over 100 cases and 6 deaths. People are wearing masks, but there are no lines at stores. Despite restaurants only doing curbside business, life seems to go on as normal. People are on the beach and in their yards. Construction and landscaping is lively. Traffic is normal.</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-51308751621440683712020-05-20T12:20:00.005-04:002020-05-20T12:20:51.679-04:00May 20 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYI had a nice break from my blogging. Nothing unpredicted occurred since I shared my plots 10 days-ago. The number of cases continue to decline in a linear fashion. Italy has started to reopen. They continue to amend their case count, which is a bit silly as everyone knows that cases are underreported due to the large number of asymptomatic cases. The blips in the Bergamo, Italy data are due to those amendments, not to a rebound since they started to 'reopen.' <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/italian-city-hard-hit-by-coronavirus-slowly-trying-to-rebound-from-devastation-11589707801">The Wall Street Journal contained an interesting article about Bergamo's travails.</a><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeff_pLXNSokWJvWwnqkmVOP_HjqdlEB4SJP-CX_ewRZMfk0pp6azDO195ExUZX3gDhsZjVb5VQkMvciHO3PnqrSaPzkp55ZfnkrtpvdjNYYsZHwGds-X1G_kBYeG6L5iQ_p8mOcecDTc/s1600/2020-05-20_12-05-28+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="592" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeff_pLXNSokWJvWwnqkmVOP_HjqdlEB4SJP-CX_ewRZMfk0pp6azDO195ExUZX3gDhsZjVb5VQkMvciHO3PnqrSaPzkp55ZfnkrtpvdjNYYsZHwGds-X1G_kBYeG6L5iQ_p8mOcecDTc/s400/2020-05-20_12-05-28+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The New York City metro area appears to be leveling out at about 5-10% testing positive. The hospitals can handle that slow rate of infection. In other words, the Spread has Slowed. Now let's move on!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9mAX49QvSfyA7eFo7_lkNAHVusHjlIfx2P0Ke-K9ode23zjC9RQzhNbVqAMwLw9Ki5sYIWs4L-NQwaX1qR2Yds9WOjqzBvjiK9FSqiyeGAS_4FeXJh6Ow6jG9a_rs2UbkRUp4VaXO7Ng/s1600/2020-05-20_12-06-44+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="597" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9mAX49QvSfyA7eFo7_lkNAHVusHjlIfx2P0Ke-K9ode23zjC9RQzhNbVqAMwLw9Ki5sYIWs4L-NQwaX1qR2Yds9WOjqzBvjiK9FSqiyeGAS_4FeXJh6Ow6jG9a_rs2UbkRUp4VaXO7Ng/s400/2020-05-20_12-06-44+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Deaths in Westchester are now consistently in the single digits. Unfortunately there is a NYS requirement of a 14-day period of daily declines in deaths prior to starting to reopen. The statistical noise at 5-10 deaths per day will not let this happen. Our governor failed statistics 101.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibNeo449XMQeTp8TcFFpgSywK2FNtYNsxzmig2Kzg65E6Kod_QDX5J0f2KOZ2UFQQafQJMhELXsPb54j5v0zwB9G5KEjkbU2fdLue8Kx72-xNM4pr_r_-aG5Lsr5Blv1v9WazLXh0SHgk/s1600/2020-05-20_12-03-41+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="589" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibNeo449XMQeTp8TcFFpgSywK2FNtYNsxzmig2Kzg65E6Kod_QDX5J0f2KOZ2UFQQafQJMhELXsPb54j5v0zwB9G5KEjkbU2fdLue8Kx72-xNM4pr_r_-aG5Lsr5Blv1v9WazLXh0SHgk/s400/2020-05-20_12-03-41+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-32471440808551944112020-05-10T05:24:00.001-04:002020-05-10T05:24:24.046-04:00May 10 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYThis is my 45th day in a row of blogging the Westchester County, NY epidemic. It has been 68 days since the containment zone was established in New Rochelle (in Westchester). At that time, each day was an unknown. How would the number of cases or deaths or percentage-testing-positive change? Now we are on the backside of the curve. The direction and shape of the curve are fairly predictable for the next few days. So.... I am going to take a break and give my readers a break. I hope you can tell from the charts where the next few days are heading. I'll be back in a week to see if we were correct.<br />
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New Cases are following a linear decay.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCwcE2ic3IyHVrkIS9ASFtuzxUTf9Vc5R9iX_qdU6VfkEocsrzFUlQcrzHe0-nFR342fcu0Emx9ePMFgCHai1xwu-cfEs9kexIiuWMqty5XAQoaCJBAXPCH72btD9MCAXrWkzC4H2Fu8U/s1600/2020-05-09_13-46-12+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="592" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCwcE2ic3IyHVrkIS9ASFtuzxUTf9Vc5R9iX_qdU6VfkEocsrzFUlQcrzHe0-nFR342fcu0Emx9ePMFgCHai1xwu-cfEs9kexIiuWMqty5XAQoaCJBAXPCH72btD9MCAXrWkzC4H2Fu8U/s400/2020-05-09_13-46-12+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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All of the NYC metro area is trending the same way.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBDz3u4EAjEqpSFhJdQ6DRlWVqIiQGmV5p4uOtWsc45WtvAXkWvrlFKojj0wqsS0zb4lgvq-NuY7oIGl6Zv6X5uY0UFrXp0mnousFl_UoAhpg3MMnK5Z-CPj1j5wrdAq-9jB0RgskEc7w/s1600/2020-05-09_13-47-20+COVID+Per+capita.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="601" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBDz3u4EAjEqpSFhJdQ6DRlWVqIiQGmV5p4uOtWsc45WtvAXkWvrlFKojj0wqsS0zb4lgvq-NuY7oIGl6Zv6X5uY0UFrXp0mnousFl_UoAhpg3MMnK5Z-CPj1j5wrdAq-9jB0RgskEc7w/s400/2020-05-09_13-47-20+COVID+Per+capita.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The percent testing positive may be stabilizing at about 10% for all of the NYC metro area.<br />
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Deaths in Westchester are also following a linear decay.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdOaJdlYHAdVFLNHL2rNzeRNJO1MewcIXShslh7PuBTavrWPwZmoIMPpCx2l8DQnCZG6vFauDKQsl-dexHz-7TJaPzQIy2rDg0_-7orWLwh4gmYRYAT-W339NfkOaPZqthotoe4iyhvRM/s1600/2020-05-09_13-49-37+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="597" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdOaJdlYHAdVFLNHL2rNzeRNJO1MewcIXShslh7PuBTavrWPwZmoIMPpCx2l8DQnCZG6vFauDKQsl-dexHz-7TJaPzQIy2rDg0_-7orWLwh4gmYRYAT-W339NfkOaPZqthotoe4iyhvRM/s400/2020-05-09_13-49-37+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-83088182067820538242020-05-09T07:45:00.000-04:002020-05-09T07:45:09.198-04:00May 9 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYThe Governor of New York almost did a happy dance yesterday as he declared victory over the corona virus. It is true that New York has been reducing cases, deaths, and hospitalizations for several weeks, but the real impact of the governor's actions on those results is debatable. Where is the control group to show cause and effect? If the control group is Sweden, the total impact of this actions was negligible or negative.<br />
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The 7-day averages above agree with the shapes of the epidemic from my data for Westchester County, Nassau County, and NYC. Note that Governor Cuomo finally dropped the 3-day average used for much of the epidemic. <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2020/05/may-5-covid-19-in-westchester-county-ny.html">As I have stated earlier, a seven day average is needed to filter out the weekend noise.</a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN_kMrfte6fuqzhawc-QJb-g2OhQS-fCoF2vAJzDp61D8pMDpBQBX5xFALWR3EJFjPusk7ZVoyrM4USVxcwwrSYNCK6xnCbXvy8DQ8glNhSiA9iubY1xRuOtDUClfqx6YtReDquAeJf3w/s1600/2020-05-09_7-00-12+COVID+Per+Capita.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="359" data-original-width="591" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN_kMrfte6fuqzhawc-QJb-g2OhQS-fCoF2vAJzDp61D8pMDpBQBX5xFALWR3EJFjPusk7ZVoyrM4USVxcwwrSYNCK6xnCbXvy8DQ8glNhSiA9iubY1xRuOtDUClfqx6YtReDquAeJf3w/s400/2020-05-09_7-00-12+COVID+Per+Capita.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The data from Bergamo, Italy (my Westchester sister-province for this epidemic) is holding steady at about 20-80 cases per day. They are testing at a lower density than Westchester so their numbers must be corrected. I estimate that they are testing in Bergamo at four times the national average in Italy or 1000 tests per million people per day. That is one half of the Westchester rate of 2000 tests per day. Correcting their case rate to that testing density gives a flow of 40-160 new cases per day to be comparable with Westchester. The current rate in Westchester is 150-250, but still declining.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHI2fFrRcHn9SOIprFDsQtCJvY9ewAI6x64UQTn7aIkL7tYk8hj5v8zVyuTyxLkAAQ9gP8g8Z4DdCRhjg7BmK-qJKq1BS889bYPx7qQPX0Dp3sHX4XX_ZbTf9IsCrRAJldHJ9Z0ZLNHcM/s1600/2020-05-09_6-58-49+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="347" data-original-width="595" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHI2fFrRcHn9SOIprFDsQtCJvY9ewAI6x64UQTn7aIkL7tYk8hj5v8zVyuTyxLkAAQ9gP8g8Z4DdCRhjg7BmK-qJKq1BS889bYPx7qQPX0Dp3sHX4XX_ZbTf9IsCrRAJldHJ9Z0ZLNHcM/s400/2020-05-09_6-58-49+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Westchester had only seven deaths yesterday, the fewest deaths since the outbreak began.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCPi2x0BcYZPrk19Z21l4ivpQb3-LEGUYGwP-cEbHRgDpU7MBPyyQdIT59XXnNB5K6z4p9FrpJxIB2CZlRSbNzxz991zUvjkeQLLxlCpEvKbKlMxSYSMaAsc2IwUILvTOgf5r0asIWO0k/s1600/2020-05-09_7-01-33+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="597" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCPi2x0BcYZPrk19Z21l4ivpQb3-LEGUYGwP-cEbHRgDpU7MBPyyQdIT59XXnNB5K6z4p9FrpJxIB2CZlRSbNzxz991zUvjkeQLLxlCpEvKbKlMxSYSMaAsc2IwUILvTOgf5r0asIWO0k/s400/2020-05-09_7-01-33+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Headline: "<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/nyc-healthcare-workers-catch-coronavirus-at-below-average-rate/">Governor shocked that Healthcare workers in Westchester have lower prevalence of disease than rest of population according antibody: 6.8% vs 13.8%</a> Same in NYC and Long Island." This is how the media can distort reality. How many stories did you read about the devastating effects of the virus on first responders, healthcare professionals, and food supply workers? Very early I did an analysis of sick police officers whose plight the media had highlighted. The prevalence of disease amoung police was the same as the general population or less. They were more likely to get tested and get better healthcare than the rest of the population, and in the end, they fared better.</div>
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<u>Who is Dying?</u> In case you have forgotten amidst all of the other hype, this virus in NOT a threat to most people. The data in New York continues to show that 80% of the deaths are in persons over 60 and <a href="https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n">90% of deaths have underlying conditions.</a> As I have said before, 98% of the population will do fine. It would be scary if we did not know who the vulnerable 2% are. BUT WE KNOW EXACTLY WHO THEY ARE.</div>
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<u>Contact Tracing</u> Finally someone has the courage to say what I have been saying about the futility of contact tracing with this epidemic. <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-atlas-contact-tracing-coronavirus">Scott Atlas of Stanford</a> has made almost the same<a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2020/04/april-19-covid-19-in-westchester-county.html"> arguments I did on these pages on April 19!</a></div>
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<u>Methods of Transmission</u> <a href="https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them">Erin Bromage</a> gives some great case studies of clusters that suggest methods of transmission. Hint: It is not riding a bike outside!</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-61128382385387971212020-05-08T07:10:00.001-04:002020-05-08T07:10:43.503-04:00May 8 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYHospitalizations in Westchester continue to drop. About 700 are currently hospitalized in a system with 3000 beds. This should be the trigger to loosen some of the restrictions in Westchester. Unfortunately, the formula for starting the 'reopening' depends on seven metrics, at least one of which Westchester cannot reach for another 14 days. More on htat later. I do not have the hospitalization data for Westchester, but it looks much like that for NYC and the state of New York shown below.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2020-05-07 Hospitalizations in New York State</td></tr>
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<br /><br />New Cases in Westchester are still dropping on a 7-day average, but there is a lot of day-to-day variation (red line). The trend has been following a linear decay (orange line) over the last seven weeks! Yesterday, the number of tests performed was almost double the average of the prior two days. The more tests, the more new cases.<div>
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The percent-testing-positive is fairly independent of the number of tests. That is why there is less noise in the data shown below. That is why I have often argued that the percent-testing-positive is a crude approximation of the prevalence in the community. This means that about 10% of the Westchester population currently has the virus. We know from antibody testing in Westchester that about 20% have recovered from the virus. Therefore 30% have been exposed to the virus so far. [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087684v1">There is data showing some recovered patients that do not have the antibody, so the number exposed could be even higher?</a>] The percent testing positive may be starting to level out at 10%. This is a level which the hospitals can handle. The strategy was always just to SLOW the spread, NOT to STOP the spread. Unfortunately, Governor Cuomo uses the latter terminology on ALL of his charts. This sends the wrong message.</div>
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The number of deaths in Westchester for the last five days were: 19, 15, 15, 51, 17. The fifty-one number was a recategorization of nursing home deaths that occurred earlier in the epidemic. It could be that yesterday's number also includes some deaths that did not really occur yesterday. One of the metrics to reopen is 14 consecutive days of decrease in deaths. A three-day-rolling-average is allowed to remove noise, but that is not enough to remove the noise in these data. It looks like end of May at the earliest for reopening of Westchester.</div>
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Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-86384503278764009222020-05-07T08:21:00.000-04:002020-05-07T08:21:14.785-04:00May 7 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYOur leaders are finally starting to act on the data. Yesterday the county started testing everyone in nursing homes in Westchester, residents and workers. From the beginning it was obvious that the elderly with underlying conditions were most vulnerable. Forty percent of the deaths in Yonkers (a city in Westchester County) are in nursing homes. In fact, several nursing home deaths from weeks ago are being recategorized as COVID-19 related, so that percentage will go up. The number of deaths reported today is unusually high and is believed to contain these prior deaths. The last three weeks of death data can be approximated by a linear decay (not a Bell Curve!).<br />
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The number of active cases in Westchester, the number hospitalized, and the number of positive cases continue to decline. There is noise in the data -- for example yesterday experienced a data dump of test data -- but the filtered data are trending down.<br />
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It is a good time to revisit the suggestions I made on<a href="http://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2020/04/april-9-covid-19-in-westchester-county.html"> this blog four weeks ago on April 9</a>. I had only one condition for starting the reopening by region -- hospitalizations drops to near normal -- not the complicated 7 metrics required by Governor Cuomo. Much of the data I used to come up with my suggested actions to reopen have not change in the last four months. </div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-66671387581898492882020-05-06T06:17:00.002-04:002020-05-06T06:17:46.499-04:00May 6 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYNew cases in Westchester fell to their lowest levels since March 18 (red line). Bergamo, Italy is into their third day of reopening. Their new cases fell to 12! (green line)<br />
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Deaths in Westchester have been at 15 for two days in a row. Hospitalizations continue to decline.</div>
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The percent testing positive continues its predictable decline. There is very little noise in the data from NYC, Nassau, and Westchester. They are all declining in unison. In the next two or three days, the percentage will drop below 10 which will be in line with with other areas of the country with mild epidemics.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfq1Tz8jYeK3-ySZMe20p1sIVhVV-Qe8zjkyZTKXJuSQZT9QdUNv9rHq16XkEDHgkbPtBPTPWYENqw7wCXXSrzXpFr4bcDn2Lmp9X8s7eco3ARK8jCvulG5Xey_Oe9IwygAesXvUdckwo/s1600/2020-05-06_5-30-36+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="353" data-original-width="597" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfq1Tz8jYeK3-ySZMe20p1sIVhVV-Qe8zjkyZTKXJuSQZT9QdUNv9rHq16XkEDHgkbPtBPTPWYENqw7wCXXSrzXpFr4bcDn2Lmp9X8s7eco3ARK8jCvulG5Xey_Oe9IwygAesXvUdckwo/s400/2020-05-06_5-30-36+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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All is preceding well with Bergamo's 'reopening.' The restrictions on travel are still very high. Police have set up roadblocks to inspect vehicles for proper papers for travel. Italians cannot travel outside of their region without a legitimate business reason. They cannot travel outside the region to family or second homes. Only 3% were cited for <a href="https://www.bergamonews.it/2020/05/05/primo-giorno-di-fase-2-meno-del-3-sanzionati-tra-i-2236-controllati-per-strada/370297/">"being outside the home for reason not among those granted."</a></div>
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As mentioned in <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2020/05/may-3-covid-19-in-westchester-county-ny.html">prior blogs, Bergamo is a province of about 1MM residents and has much in common with Westchester.</a> However, their population of elderly is very high. As a result, their fatalities per capita are much higher than Westchester. The number of deaths in Bergamo in March was more than <a href="https://www.bergamonews.it/2020/05/05/coronavirus-a-marzo-5-900-i-morti-in-bergamasca-i-dati-comune-per-comune/370139/">five times the number of deaths in March 2019.</a></div>
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In March, 5500 Bergamo residents over 65-years-old died from COVID-19. A normal year would have claimed only 750. (Westchester total deaths is currently at 1116. About 80% of those are over 65.) Demographic data states that 30% of Bergamo is over 65, so the chances of dying from COVID-19 is still less than 2% for that age group.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFYu0hbsdp0w1l43WQWe7nbfTXDado-szcQ0PRGZK8FYWCGiph5raftvG_YdchnGWnTzqg3eE4cSnc2F0epwsj3pnD1fa35UMAZ3C5r2mLdGmatJJnEdA9rmAp3pW0iKnAivbWWai0dAo/s1600/2020-05-06_6-04-39+COVID+Bergamo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="595" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFYu0hbsdp0w1l43WQWe7nbfTXDado-szcQ0PRGZK8FYWCGiph5raftvG_YdchnGWnTzqg3eE4cSnc2F0epwsj3pnD1fa35UMAZ3C5r2mLdGmatJJnEdA9rmAp3pW0iKnAivbWWai0dAo/s400/2020-05-06_6-04-39+COVID+Bergamo.jpg" width="277" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.bergamonews.it/2020/05/06/bergamo-e-provincia-dai-grafici-e-dai-numeri-la-fotografia-dei-nonni-che-ci-han-lasciato/370295/">Bergamo Deaths for Men and Women</a></td></tr>
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Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-43735265105782825702020-05-05T07:03:00.001-04:002020-05-05T07:03:09.048-04:00May 5 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYNew York announced the 'Gating' criteria for reopening regions yesterday.<br />
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Strangely, Westchester was not grouped with the New York City region which shared a similar epidemic and with which Westchester is tied by heavily traveled commuter train lines. Instead, Westchester is grouped with the 'Mid-Hudson Region' which includes the less populous and lesser effected counties of Rockland, Orange, Sullivan, Ulster, Dutchess, and Putnam.<br />
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Each region must meet the gating criteria to enter 'Phase 2' which allows some low-risk/high-value businesses to open. Because Westchester was the first county in New York with a cluster (New Rochelle) it is ahead of the other counties on the epidemic curve. I have not studied these counties (yet) in detail, because they are not similar to Westchester. My early guess is that they will delay the opening of Westchester.<br />
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The criteria and the current conditions in Westchester are summarized below.<br />
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1. 14 days of decline in total hospitalizations (rolling 3 day averages)<br />
<i>The hospitalization data for Westchester is not published. The county executive usually gives the number in his daily briefing. From his accounts Westchester meets this criteria. As I have stated in prior blogs, I do not believe the '3-day averaging' does an adequate job of eliminating noise in the data. Much of the noise comes on weekends, so a 7-day average is needed.</i><br />
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2. 14 days of decline in deaths (rolling 3 day average)<br />
<i>Westchester deaths have been declining for three weeks, but there are not 14 consecutive days of decline due to the noise. Even a 3-day rolling average does not remove the noise (as mentioned above). The green line is the 3-day rolling average. The last three weeks can be approximated by a linear decay (orange dashed line). That decay predicts Westchester could have a '0' day by May 17. For practical matters Westchester meets this criteria, but the criteria are poorly writtern.</i><br />
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<span style="text-align: center;">3. less than 2 new hospitalized patients per day per 100K population</span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><i>For Westchester this mean less than 20 patients per day. Currently less than 10% of the new cases are hospitalized and there are about new 200 cases per day. Westchester is borderline in meeting this criteria, but the hospitals are not taxed and the hospital population is dropping. This criteria is not meaningful if hospitals are not stressed! I am not sure why they threw in this criteria? It is redundant.</i></span><br />
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<span style="text-align: center;"> 4. </span>>30% hospital beds available<br />
<i>Westchester has 3000 beds and only about 700 are being used for COVID-19. That number continues to drop. Criteria met.</i><br />
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5. >90days of PPE supply<br />
<i>I am not sure what this mean? 90 days supply based on future estimated hospitalizations? Or is this some unrealistic supply based on a worse-case scenario? This seems a bit like they are just trying to slow things down. Who has a 90-day supply of anything?</i><br />
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6. >30 tests per 1K per month<br />
<i>This criteria means 1000 tests per day for Westchester. Westchester has been testing about 2000 per day for the last month. Criteria met. If 10% of tests are positive, that results in 200 new cases per day in Westchester (10% of 2000 tests) leading to about 20 new hospitalizations (see Criteria #3). Currently Westchester is running ~15% positive, but the trend will put it at ~10% in one more week.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgliU3mj0bLRZxD6Vhwoi4yKp_wYVnRzokO2dqNhqUX8BLR9jRdaGShf3nCBl9baXcD7orwdhLMQ5_wz9ug7YfPHLZX2flF_EzuZU3btk1xTyCcTqxwpdg8mSGjmaRInM-PdcHYabsVAp8/s1600/2020-05-05_5-45-07+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="601" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgliU3mj0bLRZxD6Vhwoi4yKp_wYVnRzokO2dqNhqUX8BLR9jRdaGShf3nCBl9baXcD7orwdhLMQ5_wz9ug7YfPHLZX2flF_EzuZU3btk1xTyCcTqxwpdg8mSGjmaRInM-PdcHYabsVAp8/s400/2020-05-05_5-45-07+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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7. >30 tracers per 100K (300 for Westchester)<br />
<i>This just means Westchester needs to hire 300 lackies. I have explained in <a href="https://joelcampbell1735.blogspot.com/2020/04/april-26-covid-19-in-westchester-county.html">previous blogs</a> why 'Test and Trace' is a fool's errand for a virus where 90% of the cases are asymptomatic. [Antibody tests show at least 15 % of Westchester has been exposed, but there are only 2.5% confirmed cases.] Critieria met.</i>Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-65396761213588897092020-05-04T07:35:00.003-04:002020-05-04T07:35:56.574-04:00May 4 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYWestchester Daily Cases are compared with Bergamo, Italy below. Bergamo begins ending their lockdown today.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp6QkffwIsYVrtoSg6xqtEUL4h6yb28dhcOEsAoCcbEJrf8IY-sh4ZgMVtkzQ5eLEF_AB7nxgFdOCTg4HmxfGo5Rd9llFbwRwQL5Ns1uvQFyyEd6xM3SWW4ARXaK853a9AhGwWjgMJqWw/s1600/2020-05-04_7-21-57+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="593" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp6QkffwIsYVrtoSg6xqtEUL4h6yb28dhcOEsAoCcbEJrf8IY-sh4ZgMVtkzQ5eLEF_AB7nxgFdOCTg4HmxfGo5Rd9llFbwRwQL5Ns1uvQFyyEd6xM3SWW4ARXaK853a9AhGwWjgMJqWw/s400/2020-05-04_7-21-57+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The percent of the NYC Metro area testing positive continues to go down. At 15% it is getting close to the national average.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-dmhypowceG_Ha6yGxWZhqpV3CuQaLTFwBaDbKLkHa3Y8Ce1XRlTa9JTNp35SfWhPfjsWD8-F6ndX1Unppr8RyNRLL0nUE2ti5I1bhis69tNlXr_n6SWYOX889Mnp9uvAq1WHAZfTe2A/s1600/2020-05-04_7-23-08+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="355" data-original-width="605" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-dmhypowceG_Ha6yGxWZhqpV3CuQaLTFwBaDbKLkHa3Y8Ce1XRlTa9JTNp35SfWhPfjsWD8-F6ndX1Unppr8RyNRLL0nUE2ti5I1bhis69tNlXr_n6SWYOX889Mnp9uvAq1WHAZfTe2A/s400/2020-05-04_7-23-08+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="text-align: left;">The deaths in Westchester are going down very slowly.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM5g_IzKa9PUs09T6YSNPT0_bg4ys7uPZ7mHCqyXYjtXSY0_KeihSXku1qKluJxFX9ZhU9SW5A5RtoUABHzxI-j3My78BnGN7EdW9VwoHkdldViiTGlFuGQlUuWrAsJVbd2PzSCEpLYsA/s1600/2020-05-04_7-23-55+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="604" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM5g_IzKa9PUs09T6YSNPT0_bg4ys7uPZ7mHCqyXYjtXSY0_KeihSXku1qKluJxFX9ZhU9SW5A5RtoUABHzxI-j3My78BnGN7EdW9VwoHkdldViiTGlFuGQlUuWrAsJVbd2PzSCEpLYsA/s400/2020-05-04_7-23-55+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Strangely, NYC deaths, which should be lagging Westchester, appear to have the traditional epidemic curve??</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3FG0xVemf54QORrVVPZEZuu9-2tUr4G_ULeVDG_xcusp84rZ3WKlOQR2ZHeGe_g8ATi1CjWtbob6-_1os7NfDXJrsbppAT4L8ekSWdnMAooaHtdViAuxX3KyNtcyfnfamOm4j6cImsRg/s1600/2020-05-04_7-30-20+COVID+NYC+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="741" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3FG0xVemf54QORrVVPZEZuu9-2tUr4G_ULeVDG_xcusp84rZ3WKlOQR2ZHeGe_g8ATi1CjWtbob6-_1os7NfDXJrsbppAT4L8ekSWdnMAooaHtdViAuxX3KyNtcyfnfamOm4j6cImsRg/s400/2020-05-04_7-30-20+COVID+NYC+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">NYC Deaths per Day</td></tr>
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Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-91332799136894703412020-05-03T08:02:00.000-04:002020-05-03T08:02:29.283-04:00May 3 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYI have been comparing the Province of Bergamo, Italy to Westchester County. The epidemic curves below may not appear similar, but there are some similarities.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhr9vHEwUs6SipUwHfclz5Gti6RB8kb8GT9T2QwEslzIL-MfFeo4Bj9xWlmZXieP8vOI41rz5aj4TPEpljZnNmsVT1PNZyJ83RxsWxm19ZiXnZYJZ0978pwpu5J9LCL7rX2dKCp0mJ8hg/s1600/2020-05-03_7-05-04+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="599" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhr9vHEwUs6SipUwHfclz5Gti6RB8kb8GT9T2QwEslzIL-MfFeo4Bj9xWlmZXieP8vOI41rz5aj4TPEpljZnNmsVT1PNZyJ83RxsWxm19ZiXnZYJZ0978pwpu5J9LCL7rX2dKCp0mJ8hg/s400/2020-05-03_7-05-04+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Bergamo Province is about the same population as Westchester (~1MM). Bergamo borders the largest metropolis in Italy (Milan) as Westchester borders NYC. From the graph it appears that Bergamo had fewer cases than Westchester (confirmed cases are 11394 in Bergamo and 29626 in Westchester), but this is just a result in the difference in the availability of testing. 10% of Westchester has been tested, while only 4% of Lombardy (the Milan region that includes Bergamo) has been tested. Luckily the deaths are not comparable....<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109295/provinces-with-most-coronavirus-cases-in-italy/">Bergamo has 11291 deaths</a> so far vs. 1067 in Westchester. Almost 1% of their population has died vs 0.1% of Westchester! [In the city of Bergamo 30% are over 65, more than double the 15% in Westchester. Bergamo province is less dense...1 MM people spread over 1000 sq.mi. vs 450 sq. mi. in Westchester.]</div>
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The lockdown in Bergamo started on March 9. Westchester had a Containment Zone around New Rochelle on March 12. All of Westchester was essentially closed by March 14, but the stay-at-home order did not officially go into effect until March 22. It is hard to judge the epidemic starts and peaks from the chart above, but Westchester trails Bergamo by 2 to 3 weeks.</div>
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<a href="https://www.bergamonews.it/2020/05/03/fase-2-congiunti-passeggiate-acquisti-lavoro-le-ultime-risposte-ai-dubbi-piu-frequenti/369839/">Bergamo moves into Phase 2 tomorrow</a>. Even in Phase 2 the restrictions are very high. It is not much different than what Westchester is currently practicing.</div>
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The 7-day average (this cuts out any noise caused by the weekends which I have noticed is substantial) of New Cases is showing a favorable downturn.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh6GHThvdE13DnQmSMJwTGYLGyxtvq741KkWUGLBRFcWj1UJPdmld6mMKOoQt8JzNjby7QfH1UO-_Tf-SSjtodxCDuJ2TPQMDUIZPRhWyHOqiGCwru2jraZI32Y_HSx-lUpTe7v20QixI/s1600/2020-05-03_7-30-15+COVID+7+Day+Ave.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="621" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh6GHThvdE13DnQmSMJwTGYLGyxtvq741KkWUGLBRFcWj1UJPdmld6mMKOoQt8JzNjby7QfH1UO-_Tf-SSjtodxCDuJ2TPQMDUIZPRhWyHOqiGCwru2jraZI32Y_HSx-lUpTe7v20QixI/s400/2020-05-03_7-30-15+COVID+7+Day+Ave.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The stream of new infections despite social distancing confirms how contagious this virus is. Antibodies have show that about 40% of the Bronx (borders Westchester on the south) have been exposed. Westchester is about 15%, but I am sure that varies across the county. I live in a town in Westchester that abuts the Bronx and it would not surprise me if my town was closer to 40% exposed.</div>
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Ninety Eight percent of those infected do just fine. If we did not know who the 2% vulnerable were, this would be scary. But we know almost excactly who the 2% are!!! Why don't we just act on that!!!</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-76753401161290050972020-05-02T08:49:00.000-04:002020-05-02T08:50:42.358-04:00May 2 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYWestchester County reported 262 New Cases of COVID-19 yesterday. It was only the second time since March 21 that the number has been less than 300.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaAVqMy99wldtLllVYWddQJ6vRs-ZoVfj3Y5WeOEn4y3Ggg1u0Q1LkJ7hNamVWdzUugVMwhNGCXnV8yOSKYC7-CC-UsPiun7Oo_lCcmIylkuMTj2mFPcIR1efK-5oMSqhSfymqLyWJzNY/s1600/2020-05-02_8-19-04+COVID+Per+Capita.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="596" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaAVqMy99wldtLllVYWddQJ6vRs-ZoVfj3Y5WeOEn4y3Ggg1u0Q1LkJ7hNamVWdzUugVMwhNGCXnV8yOSKYC7-CC-UsPiun7Oo_lCcmIylkuMTj2mFPcIR1efK-5oMSqhSfymqLyWJzNY/s400/2020-05-02_8-19-04+COVID+Per+Capita.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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A better indication of the reduced transmission of the virus is the Percent Testing Positive. This number has been less than 20% for four of the last five days.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoDmdwWNgiDnwhIAhIdXP9T3GA2tQHyU3N4T-bAVQ4Gnnaur1tGSdcxdBwdP4T_zagynxRiG6cQ5jeFDEDyYkw2jZAZ3VWtrGKexeeC-t1tkEfRvF6wY4wsn_6Yd3vQW0DDeRw0eT15RY/s1600/2020-05-02_8-21-28+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="598" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoDmdwWNgiDnwhIAhIdXP9T3GA2tQHyU3N4T-bAVQ4Gnnaur1tGSdcxdBwdP4T_zagynxRiG6cQ5jeFDEDyYkw2jZAZ3VWtrGKexeeC-t1tkEfRvF6wY4wsn_6Yd3vQW0DDeRw0eT15RY/s400/2020-05-02_8-21-28+COVID+Percent+Positive.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Deaths per Day have fallen below 20 for only the second day since early April. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPbScamKFgcic2d12BkrzX5JS54TGzNzomixYfPcdQELb5-dG4w0HS7bOp97uoS1ZPLi6_BrYVsr1b2gN-qjKn-VJXCK_cMyBDHUeN0G4Zmk9I8kiV1d5NqURiKXG3aVVNeFzFuT9JlQM/s1600/2020-05-02_8-28-55+COVID+Deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="346" data-original-width="599" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPbScamKFgcic2d12BkrzX5JS54TGzNzomixYfPcdQELb5-dG4w0HS7bOp97uoS1ZPLi6_BrYVsr1b2gN-qjKn-VJXCK_cMyBDHUeN0G4Zmk9I8kiV1d5NqURiKXG3aVVNeFzFuT9JlQM/s400/2020-05-02_8-28-55+COVID+Deaths.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Remdesivir gets <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/137564/download">FDA Emergency Use Authorization</a> for treatment of COVID-19 patients.</div>
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<a href="https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MS.pdf">Raoult publishes full article on Hydroxychloroquine</a>.</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-68536905709709475802020-05-01T08:07:00.001-04:002020-05-01T08:07:44.273-04:00May 1 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYThe beginning of May signals the start of reopenings across the US and Europe. I hope someone is collecting the data! Quick analysis and feedback will be needed to assist countries that are just a few weeks behind the leaders. Each state in the US is following a differenct path. Comparisons of approaches and results will be interesting.<br />
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I have been comparing Westchester to Bergamo, Italy (as well as NYC and Nassau County). I will continue to try and do that, but I do not currently have access to the Bergamo metrics that I think are important.<br />
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What are the important metrics in 'reopening'? Here is my list.<br />
1. The hospitals should not be overutilized. This should not be a difficult metric to hit as most of the hospitals in the US were nowhere near capacity during the worst of the epidemic. Bergamo was overrun as were some hospitals in NYC.<br />
2. Protect the most vulnerable. From the very start it was obvious that those over 65 and those with underlying conditions were at highest risk (although most states ignored this in their executive orders). Is there anything we can give them prophylactically? Where are the studies on prophylactic hydroxychloroquine? As most of the deaths are in this group, the metric can be deaths per day. Keep it less than 3 in 10,000 on an annual basis (0.03%) . This is about the death rate for regular flu.<br />
3. Economic health metric. This could be measured in unemployment rates. GDP has too great of a lag to be a metric.<br />
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As I have repeated almost daily, this pandemic does not follow a Bell Curve. It has a very long tail. See Bergamo below. Does this mean the virus continues to spread, despite social distancing? Or does it mean that actions on Day 0 have implications over several months? The latter would make if very difficult to make adjustments to a faulty reopening plan.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21GOWKEgaYi4FzLKHBEyGLckC3uAU5dxWGS7kguK0CCnaUqaEq09DvX2tOPwIobHTBGribjNQXsm-9MD2enBrLmRQ-Bw351dSOH6nMuzHN10dJp2BpYf9TxNbr4gRBAybb7ZoRWR8NAo/s1600/2020-05-01_6-55-35+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="607" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21GOWKEgaYi4FzLKHBEyGLckC3uAU5dxWGS7kguK0CCnaUqaEq09DvX2tOPwIobHTBGribjNQXsm-9MD2enBrLmRQ-Bw351dSOH6nMuzHN10dJp2BpYf9TxNbr4gRBAybb7ZoRWR8NAo/s400/2020-05-01_6-55-35+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Almost six weeks after their peak, Bergamo will be entering <a href="https://www.bergamonews.it/2020/05/01/domande-e-risposte-quando-e-perche-posso-uscire-di-casa-dal-4-maggio/369451/">Phase II</a> on Monday, May 4. For the first time since their stay-at-home order on March 9 they will be able to see relatives if they maintain 6 feet and wear masks. They can run and bike outside and go to the park, maintaining 6 feet and wearing masks. Gyms, cinemas, restaurants, hair salons, museums, churches, and playgrounds are still closed. Travel to second homes or to other regions of Italy is still not permitted. Public or private gatherings are not permitted with the exception of funeral parties of 15 or less, preferably outdoors with masks and 6 foot distancing. People with fever or respitatory illness must quarantine regardless of diagnosis. Businesses will start reopening in a staggered fashion. <a href="https://www.the-sun.com/news/739944/italy-schools-closed-until-september-coronavirus/">Schools are closed until September.</a></div>
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Both the New Case curves and the Death Curve shown below are not following the classical Bell Curve of an epidemic.</div>
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Bike Sunday on May 3 in Westchester appears to be a go (with masks). Bike Sunday is a 6.5 mile shutdown of the Bronx River Parkway for four hours on Sundays in May, June, and September. I guess I should be grateful that our Phase I in Westchester does not appear to be as restrictive as Phase II in Italy.</div>
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A recent 'random' antibody test estimated that 15% of Westchester had been exposed to the virus. The actual confirmed prevalence in Westchester is about 3%. About 10% of Westchester has been tested for the virus. On a personal note, my antibody test was negative. I suffered for eight weeks from late February to early April with a sinus virus. I am convinced I got it from the pool at my local gym. My point is that there are all kinds of viruses out there, most have not been identified, named, and given media coverage. If only 20% of the people tested for COVID have it, what are the other 80% suffering from? Who knows when an infection is going to be life threatening? Should I avoid my gym? What risks will I be willing to accept in the future?</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-4060531763467821342020-04-30T07:35:00.004-04:002020-04-30T07:35:52.798-04:00April 30 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYThis is my 60th day of tracking the daily COVID-19 stats in Westchester County. Much of the day-to-day changes now are just noise. The data with the least day-to-day noise is the Percent Testing Positive. This number continues almost a linear drop from its peak 5 weeks ago. <br />
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The Daily Deaths in Westchester increased from yesterday (orange line), but was not statistically different.</div>
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The number of New Cases in Bergamo, Italy has been between 35 and 110 since April 6. This is a very long tail (yellow line). It is what we should expect in Westchester where the epidemic has been similar. The virus is very contagious, so it is expected to spread at a finite rate in spite of physical distancing. As testing becomes more widely available, it is expected that a greater portion of positive cases are mild and do not require hospitalization. This is true for Westchester as well as Bergamo.</div>
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<b><u>Therapeutics</u></b></div>
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Preliminary results for the antiviral, <a href="https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19">remdesivir</a>, show similar efficacy in treating COVID-19 as TAMIFLU does in treating the regular flu. It reduces the duration of the disease by about 30% and reduces mortality. It is not a cure, but will reduce hospital stays and save lives.</div>
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Pfizer and BioNTech started <a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/biontech_and_pfizer_announce_regulatory_approval_from_german_authority_paul_ehrlich_institut_to_commence_first_clinical_trial_of_covid_19_vaccine_candidates">clinical trials of an mRNA vaccine</a> last week in Germany. The US trial is to start next week. If any company is capable of bringing a complicated vaccine to the mass market, it is Pfizer. It is one part of their manufacturing they have not moved to China.</div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-70944199368952633732020-04-29T09:25:00.000-04:002020-04-29T09:25:15.475-04:00April 29 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYWe are 43 days into the "Slow the Spread" initiative, 50 days since the containment zone in New Rochelle, 57 days (Mar 3) since the first case in New Rochelle (Westchester) was confirmed, and 67 days since that first case had symptoms (Feb 22). If you are like me, it is starting to get old. I no longer watch Cuomo at 11:30 or the White House Briefings at dinner.<br />
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Just the same, I would like to know what is going on. Something about virus transmission and lethality does not make sense. It has become evident that the virus is very widespread in Westchester and less lethal than originally thought. How and when did it spread so fast? Was it via fomite or aerosol? Were there tens of thousands with the virus circulating prior to the first case being detected? And why was the transmission rate so high even after social distancing?<br />
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New Cases in the NYC Metro area (including Westchester) seem to be in more than a linear decay. All of these areas show a similar trend in the last four days.<br />
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Neither a Gaussian shape nor a linear decay do a good job of matching the trend of the epidemic.</div>
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Deaths in Westchester appear to be declining. Fitting the data to a Gaussian curve seems appropriate.The early death reporting (spikes) was gathered from press briefings prior to NYS making the data publicly available on a daily basis. The early data is presumed to be both under-reported (late) and accumulated over several days (instead of a single day).</div>
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The IHME model also assumes a Gaussian shape for the Death Curve. They have found that slowing the spread widens the curve, but does not reduce the area under the curve. In other words, the same number of people die, they just don't die all at once and flood the hospitals. To account for that recent finding, IHME has changed the models (which are very dependent on recent actual data) so they predict MORE deaths than prior models. Here is the latest model for NYS. It predicts that by May 8, deaths will fall below 60 per day (~2% of total deaths). This is the same date as the April 22 model. On April 1, their model had 95% confidence that the death rate would be 0-50 on May 1!</div>
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<b><u>Reopening Westchester</u></b></div>
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The Westchester County Executive has not announced any plans for reopening. He did mention that he plans to go ahead with Bike Sunday on May 3, but with face-covering required. Bike Sunday is a 6.5 mile shutdown of the Bronx River Parkway for four hours on Sundays in May, June, and September.</div>
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His hands are tied because the reopening of Westchester must be done in conjuction with NYC and other NYC metro areas.</div>
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<a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-outlines-additional-guidelines-phased-plan-re">Here are the latest NYS requirements for reopening.</a></div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299507760190681526.post-50339356282195555742020-04-28T07:45:00.000-04:002020-04-28T07:47:01.065-04:00April 28 - COVID-19 in Westchester County, NYThe most important data to look at when judging if it is time to loosen restrictions on physical distancing is the hospitalization usage. This is not available for Westchester County. The verbal reports state that it is dropping, just like the state utilization shown below. Westchester hospitals (despite being one of the hardest hit areas in the world .... 3% confirmed cases) were never more than 35% full.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqqXyu7OAPxlVrzfSUzduWUqFXxYPHMGiKWL0gr5XEL6ObCiwqJngkYDJ0f2o4vGEqaWrfT1X0lAppUHQGLQzSzhF4GFDLVgMlXPGK_O-HPpvF2AfPHu7Z_shs5V-Br6kalXpiHHsHx48/s1600/2020-04-28_7-28-23+COVID+NYS+Hospitalizations.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="261" data-original-width="505" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqqXyu7OAPxlVrzfSUzduWUqFXxYPHMGiKWL0gr5XEL6ObCiwqJngkYDJ0f2o4vGEqaWrfT1X0lAppUHQGLQzSzhF4GFDLVgMlXPGK_O-HPpvF2AfPHu7Z_shs5V-Br6kalXpiHHsHx48/s400/2020-04-28_7-28-23+COVID+NYS+Hospitalizations.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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All other metrics continue to improve. Deaths were at their lowest number since April 5 (orange line).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn1YlluVRZLKo_oN4ZojDmq1QRfd40XZydlyRvsVJLZt8-lADvg0eCVYP3xXjn0IL3MZ4M5V4Pa8Hu4cPdQEPFnyE2qK5OpDBOGDe_uivNH2BwkuHyxYZI-py8o9HCxJvK_d9yuWHz2lY/s1600/2020-04-28_7-13-04+COVID+Westchester.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="364" data-original-width="595" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn1YlluVRZLKo_oN4ZojDmq1QRfd40XZydlyRvsVJLZt8-lADvg0eCVYP3xXjn0IL3MZ4M5V4Pa8Hu4cPdQEPFnyE2qK5OpDBOGDe_uivNH2BwkuHyxYZI-py8o9HCxJvK_d9yuWHz2lY/s400/2020-04-28_7-13-04+COVID+Westchester.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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New Cases were at their lowest since March 21 (red line).</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCL8JhGVdAeNFYrjKvqthAySAb5kgyuN78bkIl9ufs3dU_wrcwel_LIM66Vx9myfk6Y5BEBKgIqRBV8w7VXQ0Rr6177OPLm0zxeRfqgTudkmnKaDBQSihE0-QeNH64JDvz7CkbgOdqvXw/s1600/2020-04-28_6-57-09+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="598" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCL8JhGVdAeNFYrjKvqthAySAb5kgyuN78bkIl9ufs3dU_wrcwel_LIM66Vx9myfk6Y5BEBKgIqRBV8w7VXQ0Rr6177OPLm0zxeRfqgTudkmnKaDBQSihE0-QeNH64JDvz7CkbgOdqvXw/s400/2020-04-28_6-57-09+COVID+Gaussian.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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All of the NYC Metro area continues its slow burn out of the disease. Despite over 6 weeks of enforced social distancing, over 20% of tests are positive. The virus has shown how contagious it is. The <a href="https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-long-island-new-york-1.44204015">latest study</a> shows that 25% of NYC Metro area have antibodies.</div>
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<a href="https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_archive/pubs-pdfs/2020/200417-reopening-guidance-governors.pdf">Transmission Risk Scoring of activities by Johns Hopkins - Bloomberg School of Public Health</a></div>
Jay A. Campbellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07612324473386925133noreply@blogger.com0